I’m Scared to Show You This
I hope this does not jinx us!
Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas
Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, and less than half a percent (0) for Evan McMullin. In a head to head contest Trump leads Clinton 50-44 in the state, which Mitt Romney won by 16 points in 2012.
A Democratic victory in Texas this year remains a stretch but within the numbers there are signs of Democrats being positioned to become seriously competitive there in the years ahead. Trump’s lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.
In two months Texas went from impossible to “a stretch.” Next month, we will be “omg, they’re gonna do this thing!”
I have been a “senior” for over 11 years, and the thought of voting for Hair Drumpf would qualify me for the funny farm. Are there that many crazy people in Texas? (That’s a rhetorical question.)
1Larry from Colorado: Thank you! I just turned 65 this year and all I can say to those certain seniors in TX is; How’s that Republican thing workin’ out for y’all? Dementia much? A little old to be afraid of every new boogeyman they create. You lived a lifetime for this crap? I think it’s checkout time. Have a nice afterlife.
2I have been tempted to move back to Houston just so I could vote D there.
3I know I shouldn’t be fantasizing about jamming the doors of the retirement homes and assisted living places on election day. (But it’s hard to stick to the rules when the other side is breaking them every chance they get.)
4I’m well over 65 and I guaran-damn-tee you this Texan will not be voting for Trump.
5This is why I really don’t put much trust in polls, even good ones for Hillary! Especially those done by PPP. And Rasmussen. And a few others that pretend to be polling organizations.
6Paddy Power had Texas turning blue at 14/1 a couple of moths ago. Now it’s 9/1. Let’s keep moving those odds.
7@Rhea: I understand your feeling (all to well, sometimes), but let’s try to remember that voter suppression is a Rape-Public-CONgame. We’re Democrats in no small part because we support, well… democracy. And that’s a good thing. (Usually. I keed. I think.) The more people vote, the better we do.
So, lets GOTV!
“I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy – but that could change.”
– Vice President Dan “Potato Head” Quayle, 5/22/89
Keep America Great Again!
8Clinton/Kaine 2016
Dang typos – should read “all too well”, of course. D’oh.
9Lol.
10The kids are alright. The future is so bright I gotta to wear shades.
11Demographics are dooming the snacilbupeR, and running a bigoted idiot like Scumpf simply accelerates their downfall.
12Bwahahaha!!
Something to enjoy: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/16/clinton-runs-5-8-points-ahead-of-trump-in-red-states/
13Read elsewhere re Trump:
“So many Republicans are jumping ship that Celine Dion is going to sing the theme song.”
14What would happen if the Hispanic vote was mobilized in Texas? Didn’t I read months and months ago that Hispanics were taking tests to become citizens in record numbers SPECIFICALLY so they could vote against Trump? Why doesn’t a Dem PAC dedicate itself to this?
15Maybe sooner than next month?
Briefing season is upon us. Trump’s first briefing is today.
The Rachel Maddow Show asked Clinton if she had received her first one yet and got, “No comment.” Not a word – even about the schedule. Nada.
But Trump won’t be able to contain himself. I’m expecting, within 2 days tops, for Trump to strut onto some stage and announce, “Look how important I yam!” and blurt out something classified.
Now, I’ve never lived in Texas and I’ve certainly never been a Republican but – to my understanding – both Texans and R’s in general take national security pretty dam seriously, no?
When [not if] Trump pulls this stunt, I expect the next stampede to begin.
16fierywoman,
17In TX (and elsewhere IMO) those new citizens are just a very tiny portion of the potential Hispanic voter pool.
The real problem (and I’m going to get in deep doodoo here) is that THAT demographic just does not get out to vote in numbers comparable to most other voting cohorts.
I know that many Hispanics do vote faithfully in most elections (and there are far more of them that vote “R”, in TX, than one might think).
But as a percentage of the total number of possible Hispanic voters, the number is abysmal (and “Hispanic” in TX is predominately Mexican-American of course, whether here before Anglo settlement or coming in later).
I wish that there was an answer to motivate them, perhaps Donald Four-Flusher T-Rump will motivate them enough this time. They do have to get registered first though.
.
On the other side, the R’s pay particular attention to the seniors GOTV effort. I’ve seen them dredge up huge numbers of geezers and codgers and bring them to the polls to ‘vote’, arguably against their own interests (this in a rural county where you pretty much run into most everyone sooner or later, excepting those seniors who ‘magically’ appear only at the polls).
LynnN: re: Celine. Bwahahahaha…
Aaaah….. thanks for that.
18