Hold off on the popcorn
As everyone likely already knows, Matt Gaetz’s power play to get Kevin McCarthy ousted as speaker worked. McCarthy is no longer speaker. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina is the temporary speaker. What powers does he have? I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head. This has literally never happened before. A speaker of the house has never been ousted during a legislative session. Congratulations Kevin, I guess you’ve made history.
Some of my friends on the left are celebrating today. I can’t celebrate. Yes, the Republican party is a mess. Yes, this throws everything they are doing into chaos. Who the heck knows what happens to all of those sham investigations into Joe and Hunter Biden? Who knows how this might impact their oversight of things like the Justice Department and FBI? I literally cannot tell you if they are able to do anything at all.
When McCarthy went through all of those ballots to become speaker we were repeatedly told that no business could take place until a speaker was elected. Now, there is no speaker. So, do we go back to that state where we are waiting for a new speaker to be elected? Can McHenry conduct business until a new speaker is elected? How long is this all going to take?
These are questions I can’t answer. They are very basic questions. I was a political science major. I taught high school government for several years. These are the things my wife and daughter ask me when they don’t know the answer. These are the things I could tell them before. I can’t now. I honestly don’t know the answer. That by itself is frightening.
It might seem at first glance that the Republican party eating itself from the inside is a good moment for people on the left. I’d remind everyone that like that nothing ever happens in isolation. A dying animal lashes out all around them before they succumb to whatever is attacking them. It might be an actual law of physics or maybe Murphy’s Law, but these things are never completely isolated to themselves.
The House is done for the week. So, we won’t have a speaker until at least Monday. That means we have frittered more than a week away when the deal McCarthy brokered gave us 45 days. So far, we are talking pure mechanics and not even anything remotely political. I don’t have answers. Beyond the political ramifications, I can’t even address the basic ones. Sure, there are people that study this. There are people that probably know more than the folks actually doing it. It’s not like I am the Grand Pubha of all things political. It’s just disjarring not to know the answers.
Of course, the political ramifications are next level in terms of anxiety. Who will be the next speaker? Will it be someone more moderate or will the Freedom Caucus somehow take the entire chamber hostage? Are we looking at a speaker like Jim Jordan? These are things no one can answer right now. Even if we could we couldn’t tell you what it would all mean for everything happening over the next year and a half. This is why I’m not celebrating this. I literally do not know what’s happening next and no one else does either. Kevin McCarthy was a lying scumbag and he did not have a discernable backbone. Yet, I can’t even begin to guess on whether the next guy (assuming it is a man and not Marjorie Taylor Greene) will be better or worse. Put the popcorn away folks. This is no time to celebrate.
From Heather Cox Richardson:
“[T]he gavel has passed to Representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who has power only to recess, adjourn, and hold votes for a new speaker.”
That and, apparently, throw Nancy Pelosi out of her Capitol office, since there’s apparently nothing more important going on.
1Is the R still a viable party?
Consider the potential “candidates” for Speaker as reported in news feeds:
* 45
“Sources telling me [Sean Hannity] at this hour that some House Republicans have been in contact with, and started an effort to draft former President Donald *rump to be speaker. I have been told that president *rump might be open to helping the republican party, at least in the short term.”
* Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is having conversations with House GOP allies as he seriously entertains a bid for speaker….
* Steve Scalise has begun calling Republicans seeking their support to become speaker, per multiple sources.
At the same petty time, “GOP Rep Patrick McHenry, the temporary Speaker, has ordered Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi to exit her Capitol hideaway by tomorrow, as first reported by Politico. Pelosi is in SF to attend memorial for the late Sen. Feinstein.”
2IANACL, but I’ve seen a few cites indicating that no, the speaker pro-tem Patrick McHenry cannot handle regular business, and his agenda is essentially restricted to electing a new speaker.
It seems highly unlikely that the highly fractious (R) party can actually choose and elect a speaker without help from the (D) party. The whackadoodle wing of the (R) party wants to shut the government down. Absent considerable pressure — or substantial concessions — they’re not going to agree to anything.
3I no longer cut idiots any slack. It only encourages them.
4Oh no, as a Democrat I only make a deal if it benefits the Democrats. I’m not bailing anyone out. You gotta give me something to get something.
5Now, there is no speaker.
The speaker we don’t have just ordered Nancy Pelosi to vacate her office. She’s in California right now.
6The Democrat leadership is not without onus here. They chose to not throw him a lifeline without making him crawl/beg for it. Not that he has deserved our support but be careful what you wish for. Murphy’s Law says it can always go catastrophically wrong.
7And your home boy Rep. Troy Nehls says he’ll file paperwork to nominate DT as Speaker. No popcorn here either. It’s all so freaking sad and scary and pathetic. The basket of deplorables is overflowing. We need a major ‘correction’ in Nov 2024 or our country is down the tubes.
8Alan @5, The first thing that Squeaker Pro Tem McHenry did was order Pelosi to vacate the –traditional– ‘former Speaker’s’ ‘hideawy office [which has a desirable location near the chamber]. A totally chickenshit petty move, never before seen.
Now a Democratic Rep is moving to have McHenry’s bullshit negated, on the basis of his not even having the authority to do such a thing per House Rules.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/4/2197290/-House-Dems-On-Tuesday-Move-to-Vacate-the-Speaker-Pro-Tem
9I suppose one could claim that McCarthy is now the Speaker Emeritus given that he was just ousted. I asked our government teacher here and she said that he can conduct other business in addition to finding the next speaker, but the GOP caucus does not want to have any business done until a new speaker is elected. If we assume that the Democrats don’t vote for any Republican then 45 only becomes speaker if every Republican votes for him. I just don’t see any Republican in the House winning a simple majority. Again, there will have to be concessions, palms greased, rings kissed, and asses kissed. I’m trying to figure out whether we would benefit more from a right wing nut job having to make concessions to moderates or a moderate having to make concessions to the right wing.
10Nick, my gut is with you – some certainty is better than chaos – but my head is not.
I’ve been listening to interviews with Dems and they make a good point. Kevin McCarthy cannot be trusted. If they did a deal with him, how could they trust he would keep it?
Even the R’s can’t trust him.
11Ok, so without a speaker, the gop house of vengeance can’t/won’t do any business. Besides carrying out their vengeance hearings, exactly what has their business been? I guess the only thing I can think of is kicking the budget can down the road a few weeks and now ousting their leader. The picking of a new leader will be a zoo, and we can’t expect the new speaker to be the least of two or more evils, but likely the worst.
12I think that someone like Biggs or Gosar should assume the mantle of Speaker of the Nazis so they can be exposed as the Nut Jobs that they are.
13No, the House cannot conduct any business until a Speaker has been elected. The speaker pro tempore can only recess, adjourn, or conduct elections for the new speaker.
For those who want to blame the Democrats — as Republicans are already doing — I say Hold on! McCarthy routinely reneged on promises made to Democrats, and he blamed them for trying to shut down the government. Why should they trust him? Republicans expected the Democrats in the House to save McCarthy’s bacon, but for what? To be lied to and maligned?
So, Republicans got their shut-down after all. Tick tock, Congress.
14I’m not celebrating.
The history of the Republican Party shows there is always somebody worse waiting in the wings. McHenry wasn’t even elected as Speaker and he’s already making a power grab for Pelosi’s office.
When in reality he’s just some guy who’s name was on a piece of paper in a drawer. Yet he’s already pushing people around like he’s king.
15I understand that by House rules Trump cannot become Speaker, in that any speaker who is indicted for a felony must immediately vacate the speakership.
16Typical, unnecessary, overthinking, liberal hand-wringing. Too bad we can’t ever enjoy anything.
17Now Jim Jordon has thrown his hat in the ring. Don’t that just make your heart go all pitter-patter?
18Jordan and Scalise running for Speaker. Isn’t there a Congressional Baseball practice next week?
19According to Nicholas Langworthy (R-NY) it’s a “dark money” plot by — wait for it — George Soros to “derail the Republican Majority.” Nick, you folks were never on the rails to begin with.
20Around here, we call him “Little Patty McHenry”….always seen with a VERY large cigar in informal photos, which tells you something.
The goal is to shut the government down – because Republicans don’t actually believe in government, much less in GOOD government – and then blame the Dems for it.
Power and Greed. That’s what drives these bozos. They have it…they’ll keep it…and they want whatever they don’t already have that’s yours. And they will burn the entire country down to get it.
21As an amusement, the cool kids at the university are passing around this gem:
The GOP had to relearn the lesson that turning the base up too high blows out your Speaker.
I wish I was clever enough to have come up with it, but I don’t know the original source to cite.
22Sigh–wouldn’t it be wonderful if…
5 to 10 moderate Republicans could be convinced to vote for Jeffries with deal that their requested bills would be allowed to have vote on floor – or leadership in committee options.
I know they fear it would be a death sentence on their being re-elected, but really finding one’s willing to assert we want to get stuff done would be nice.
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