Hillary on the Road to 270
Having said all that about the unreliability of polls in May, I’m now going to go about making predictions in May, because Freedom!
On Friday, January 20, 2017 at Noon, Eastern Time, the Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton will take the Oath of Office to become the 45th President of the United States of America.
First, let’s look at the candidate. There’s not going to be an e-mail indictment. Benghazi is not going to slow her down. No one is going to care about Whitewater, or Rose Law Firm billing records, or Bill’s bimbo eruptions. The shade of Vince Foster is not going to appear in the President’s chair like Banquo at the banquet.
We who sit inside these drum circles on a daily basis often forget two words I have always tried to drum into my colleagues and clients: inside baseball. Most fans don’t care about inside baseball. On the GOP side, that disconnection from the process of elections and governance is so total that they don’t even try to engage with the hard stuff. Hence, Donald Trump.
NOBODY CARES about these things that Hair Drumpf coalesces into “Crooked Hillary” partly because they don’t care to understand them; even if there was any THERE there, that there is still inside baseball. Hell, Drumpf couldn’t even spell Clinton Global Initiative, much less explain what it does, much much less explain how not breaking any laws is somehow crookeder than his own doglegged backstory.
How do I know that nobody cares? Because think about this: in 24 years, the Clintons have been in 6 national races – 4 primaries and two generals – and in every single one, people have questioned their character. And in every single one they’ve won the popular vote. (Yes, in 2008, Hillary won the primary popular vote.) So far, over 30 million votes have been cast for HRC in Democratic primaries, more than any other Presidential candidate from any party in American history.
So the “Clinton record” and all the mud-slinging that will be attempted against them has not yet and will not ever put any hitch in Hillary’s giddy-up.
Now, let’s look at the map. Hillary has been running fairly overtly as Obama’s third term, thus we take as our departure point the 2012 election for his second term. Obama carried 26 states + DC for a total of 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 24/206. Obama carried 51.1% of the popular vote; that victory was largely based on carrying the following demographics: Women 55-44; AfAm 93-6; Asian 73-26; Hispanic 71-27; LGBT 76-22.
Do you see Hillary’s numbers going up or down in these growing constituencies against Trump? Then consider these opportunities for growth against Obama’s performance in 2012: He lost married women 53-46; he lost independents 50-45; he lost college graduates 51-47. Do you see Trump improving or worsening on Romney’s numbers in these areas?
My cosmic political pendulum was already moving away from Republican victories, as Republicans moved away from ideas and governance because their ideas about governance were failing. In their stead, they’ve won some elections channeling on fear and ideology, tapping into the basest beasties in the darkened authoritarian mind. Far from being a change, Donald Trump truly represents the ravening Republican id. He stands as the avatar for everything that is worst about the GOP, which is exactly everything that has been turning voters off for the last quarter century.
Given that Gore and Kerry each lost by one state – and those contested! – and that every other election in the past 24 years has been won by Democrats based on demographics, then two hundred and seventy electoral votes are a lock. Hillary could underperform Obama’s 2012 map by Florida, Ohio AND Wisconsin and still win 275. As always, I am saying this based on current conditions, and people need to turn out, and there might still be some Deus in the machina that could finally make something stick against the Clintons.
But I wouldn’t bet the farm on that being Donald John Trump.
Next: 400 EV and The Perfect Storm
Inauguration Day is in 2017.
1Let’s not breed complacency here.
2That would be January 20, 2017 (not 2016).
3I’m with Alan. Feeling sure that you’re going to win reminds me of Grover Norquist rampaging down the TV studio’s halls demanding to know if the awful news was true, and yes, it was. Let’s not stop pushing to get the voters to the polls.
4Dear Primo, thanks for the encouraging words. I will double down on reminding people to register and to vote!
5On the other hand, in the words of Obama’s “anger translator”:
“Khaleesi is comin’ to Westeros!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkAK9QRe4ds
(For those who know even less than I do about Game of Thrones, that means the badass broad with the dragons is on the march.)
6If the one word, “Dubya” isn’t enough to rock me off any complacency, I died and someone failed to inform me. That he slithered into office twice has my voting calendar filled to 2060 and beyond.
Then, there’s that one man attack on civil liberties, Donald John Trump. He’s somewhere plus of 70% negative with women. Men, we should be matching that number out of respect to our mothers and all the other women in our lives.
Vote in 2016, 2018 and keep voting! “Must see” viewing is Samantha Bee explaining just what the unholy coalition of snacilbupeR and pervangelists would do to our country.
http://crooksandliars.com/2016/05/samantha-bee-whats-evangelicals-anyway
BTW How hard can it be to pry the Evangelical vote away from Donnie? By my count he’s 697 wives, a whole lot of wisdom, and a few concubines short of Solomon. In Donnie’s defense, he does have that foreign wives thing down. Then there’s all those moneylender and greed examples that should sink Das Donnie. Or, maybe this? “Deuteronomy 17:17
“He shall not multiply wives for himself, or else his heart will turn away; nor shall he greatly increase silver and gold for himself.”
Winning the Electoral College in 2016 is a nice goal. Demolishing what remains of the snacilbupeR is a plan.
7Trump’s strength is that he is running against the establishment, which is viewed as corrupt and representing only the rich and powerful. While this is strongest on the right, we are seeing it on the left as well. Sanders is a good guy, but many of his supporters are rabid antis. They are anti Clinton. They are anti the Democratic party. And their rabidity is very similar in type to Tea Part rage.
That rage is where Trump could pick up voters. I don’t think it will happen, but I didn’t think Trump would get the nomination either.
8Sorry about the date contretemps, y’all and I did say “people need to turn out.” And we do have five months to drive that home.
But I wanted to share my thinking in this series of pieces so that, as other pundits throw things out, we all have a framework to hold against their statements. I think the message from the corporate coprophagic media is especially susceptible to framing the horserace as closer than it is out of vested self-interest.
As soon as that becomes “conventional wisdom” it edges towards “self-fulfilling prophecy.”
9#NeverHillary
10Just a reminder that there is a slew of life-long Democrats that will not be voting for Hillary. I for one am done voting for the Lesser of Two Evils.
Nancy in IL, understood and I respect your right to vote your conscience. Hope there are some down ballot races to keep you voting. President Obama was my first election, so I’m game for “one more chance.” However, I am doing my best to communicate to the PTB and Debbie WTF Schultz that they need to do more to count on my vote beyond 2016.
There’s a whole big voter pool out there, so yes, we should expect and demand better. FDR and better; not a weak effort to stem the tide of Reaganomics and an MIC bleeding our economy.
11Nancy in IL, not voting for the lesser of two evils may mean that you and all the rest of us get stuck with the greater of two evils. How exactly is this better, please? (I agree there may have been better choices but we’re stuck between two of them now.)
12There was that time Bill and Hill both stiffed Chelsea’s babysitter-in vary different ways,I might add. The saving grace for the Clinton’s was a wingnut congress refusal to provide any security monies for Clinton babysitters until long after the Clinton’s Benghazied the poor girls.
13People need to understand who the real Donald Trump is. That alone will be enough to guarantee a large voter turnout. If there were a way to get out the message every day, between now and the election, that Trump is an entirely inexperienced, unqualified leader, a misogynist, a flip-flopper, art destruct-er & job destroyer, I’m convinced people will vote.
Keep talking Donald.
14I echo Rhea’s wise words. Those Democrats who have fallen for the Republican attacks on Hillary over the years must consider from whence the disinformation cometh and that none of it has come to anything.
15Also, given that no candidate is perfect (and that includes Bernie) we need a competent, experienced, liberal feminist to counter the racist, misogynist, evangelical freaks and billionaires who seek to set us back several decades in every facet of society. Hold your nose if you have to, but vote for the Democratic candidate whomever she may be.
I’m not sure what should happen but I DO NOT LIKE TRUMP. Clinton’s campaign better quit trying to turn off the lights and mikes on Sanders’ campaign. It only hurts her. They have to find SOME WAY to work together. They’re both goodd folks. I know former GOPs in PA where you have to register Dem or GOP ahead of time. They changed to DEMOCRAT to be able to vote for Sanders. They will not vote for Trump or Hillary.
16And yesterday I read in DAILY KOS that Nader, who must be getting senile, is endorsing Trump loudly. Shame on him. Remember GWB and the Iraq war….thanks to Nader.
I still want Bernie.
17Marge Wood, maybe Kos has jumped the shark this time. Nader is a pretty solid “none of the above” guy in a race between Hilz and Donnie.
Here’s what Ralph said four days ago: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-05-13/ralph-nader-donald-trump-has-done-some-good-hillary-clintons-winning-by-dictatorship
That doesn’t vary much from what he was saying last summer: https://blog.nader.org/2015/06/19/trump-for-president-giving-the-gop-nightmares/
Next time Ralph writes something for CounterPunch, I’ll share it with you.
But please, don’t blame Ralph for an election Gore lost and miscreants stole for Dubya. We could “if only” all day, but had Gore won NH or his own home state ….
😀 Marge Wood, if you’re in the mood to stick a burr under anyone’s saddle, you are more than welcome to join my correspondence chain with Debbie WTF Schultz. Think I need to start photocopying my checks to Tim Canova, so Debbie can receive them as attachments to my e-mails.
18Corinne Sabo, me too. Prepared to support the Bern all the way to Philadelphia and the chance that saner heads will prevail to make him the Democratic candidate.
Otherwise rather than be VP possibilities, I prefer that he and Sen Warren remain in the Senate to keep watch on the Oval Office. Julian Castro? Nah; he’s been screwing the pooch over at HUD. Sherrod Brown? No. Can’t state concisely why yet, give me time, but he’s annoying.
Your thoughts on someone young, dynamic and a good choice for VP?
19Sherrod Brown rocks. I spent a few minutes with him when he was stumping for Obama in Oh-Eight in OhAitch!
(O-H! I-O! Fired UP! Ready to go!)
He’s a great liberal voice and would sew up Ohio, but he’s gonna do that anyway and when we win, Kasich would get to appoint his successor – probably ever-Doofus Josh Mandel or someone worser. What if it was given back to Evilmike Flyingdewine Monkeypoo?
Sherrod would make a kickass Majority Leader.
20How about Russ Feingold?
21I suggested in 2001 that Kathleen Harris should be awarded a ambassadorship: in Somalia. I love the happy thoughts that the election would go “blue” but I don’t count on it. Remember the old adage, hope for the best but plan for the worse.
Mass suicide, perhaps?
22Primo will take Sherrod Brown at your word. Good point that we really do not want to be robbing the Senate to fill other positions, when a Senate Democratic majority is essential.
Aggieland Liz, Feingold is a great guy, but again that would be robbing the Senate. Plus, he is 62+. C’mon folks, Julian Castro cannot be the only good Democrat under the age of 60. Whether Hilz or Bernie, figure them for 4 years and the VP for 8 more. Don’t let Dan Quayle scare you; he was a nacilbupeR.
Linda Phipps next best thing to Kathleen Harris to Somalia was Max Baucus to China.
23if the GOP truly thought Trump could defeat either Sanders or Clinton, their leadership wouldn’t currently be going through a meltdown. I’m not suggesting we should take it as a given that the Dem nominee will win, but going into the general campaign with optimism is certainly called for.
24Maryelle, I’m with you on Hillary. After 25 years and millions of dollars spent on smearing her, no one would look good. Nothing has come from any of it because there no There – There. It’s all lies. My big complaint about Hillary is I want her to be more of a peacenik, less of a hawk.
How about Rep. Tammy Duckworth, Illinois, for VP? Or who’s the Buddhist representative from Hawaii?
25Debbo, are you thinking of Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii)? You picked two great options for VP. I’d appreciate watching either of them knock the snot out of that pencil neck Tommy Traitor. “That’s Madame Vice President to you” whap!
As you know, e platypus onion’s main squeeze Ivana Kuturnutzov has been a great personal disappointment to me. Still waiting for her to deliver Mitch’s.
Any good news from the down ballot races? Our Harry Reid replacement, Catherine Cortez Masto is a superb candidate. But she’s taking heavy incoming from Shelly and the Koch brothers. Her likely opponent is a total nozzle, but he has ‘name recognition’ from being in the House. Don’t think he’s Freedom Caucus per se, but he is complete nacilbupeR st00pid.
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