Polls cannot accurately predict a likely voter. Even more difficult to predict is what a person likely to vote is likely to do. Measuring “enthusiasm” based on self-reporting is even more of an iffy proposition. “Yes, I will vote,” and “Yeah, I guess so,” are two different answers that could mean exactly the same thing.

Donald Trump’s support is enthusiastic among certain types, less so among other types, and predicated on different reasons from person to person. For a protest voter, or an anti-Hillary voter, or even an enthusiastic voter – one prone to march into the polling place every first Tuesday after the first Monday in November in snow and sleet and rain and gloom of night – it’s hard to say which of the myriad sins of Donald Trump is likely to be the last straw.

For Clinton, on the other hand, because she was a well-known political entity who has been thoroughly raked over the coals for much of the last 25 years, there are fewer “surprises.” Even the deplorable Comey letter to his leaky friends is merely a weak attempt at keeping yet another non-scandal soap bubble on life support. It’s not even a NEW non-scandal, but rather a retread.

I’m telling you why

But.

The polls appear to be tightening, along with Democratic pundits’ throats. Especially worrying to some are the early reads on who is voting early. Per this Slate article, Democrats are out-polling Republicans in Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. This is good news in these swing states.

However, Republican early voters outnumber Democrats in Arizona and Florida, the latter  a must-win state for Trump – BIGLY. Polling has tightened there but, again, there’s so much secret sauce in trying to discern not only intent but enthusiasm, that it’s hard to say what the real number is.

But here’s a real number you might like.

Among real people casting real votes in Florida thus far, Republicans outpace Democrats by a few tenths of a percent: 40.4% to 40%. TargetSmart/William&Mary has polled those people who have actually voted already in Florida, thus removing some of the uncertainty from the equation.

28% of Republicans who have already voted in Florida… have voted for Hillary Clinton!

It’s these little tidbits of info that tell us the true nature of the race.  Keep the pedal to the metal, and bring a friend to the polls.  But be of good cheer, my friends; it’s not as close as some would have you think.

BY DEB TWYMAN —

Republican’s are saying that if Hillary wins they will block her nominations to the SCOTUS. Thing is, if they win a majority in the Senate they can do exactly that. Right now there are six crazy close Senate races:
PA: Dem +2.6
NV: Dem +1.5
NH: Dem +1.4
IN: Dem +1.2
MO: Dem +0.8
NC: GOP +1.4

6 races that can make the difference between a progressive Supreme Court and a no Court at all. If that doesn’t make you as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, it should.

So here’s a challenge to all the customers of the World’s Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, while Juanita Jane is doing her bit to keep Democracy safe, do your bit to help take back the Senate and keep the White House, call 3 friends and convince them not just to vote for Hillary but to vote down ballot so she can get the help she needs. Then get them to call 3 of their friends to do the same. And if you live in PA, NV, NH, IN, MO, or NC make it FIVE, long tailed cats need all the help they can get!

That fine Christian man who is the Agriculture Commissioner of Texas (yeah, I’ve talked about him before) caught Donald Trump’s tweeting habit and up and posted this one this afternoon.

Miller’s office says —

“We’re trying to get to the bottom of it. We think we’ve been hacked,” said Mark Loeffler, communications director for the Texas Department of Agriculture, in an interview with mySA.com.

Then a few minutes later, Loeffler admited that they weren’t hacked.  He now blames it on a staff member.

An official statement from Miller’s office has no mention of hacking and says “the campaign was retweeting information on Twitter today and inadvertently retweeted a tweet that they were not aware contained a derogatory term.”

Yeah, he means “hacked” and “inadvertently retweeted” as in so drunk that he has to hold on to the grass to lean against the ground.

“We dealt with it. It was a simple mistake, an oversight,” Miller said. “It should have never happened.

I think he should have gone with drunk.  You can fix drunk.

Thanks to Rosemary for the heads up.

When FBI Director James Comey injected himself into the Presidential election last week, his defenders and excusers claimed that he actually had no choice, and that fairness and honesty compelled him to deliver a letter unto the Congressional Republicans that leaked almost before it arrived in their sieve-like in basket.

If it hadn’t been for his ridiculous editorializing earlier this year when he announced that nothing illegal had been done to, on, about, or around her email server, Comey might have been able to skate on the “shucks, just doin’ muh dooty” line. But it turns out, as it so often does, that a Republican applied a ridiculously unbalanced double standard when it comes to actual threats to the Republic.

Harry Reid, ever the sparkplug, called him out on it; “Hey COMEY! How about a little status on The Muscovian Candidate, Donald Trumpski, and his multiple ties to Russia the Feebs are supposed to be investigating?  And, BTW, ever heard of a little thing called the Hatch Act?”

If we could even hear crickets on this! But the silence has been deafening. What does the FBI know? Here are three things we can be sure of:

• Paul Manafort and his ties via Ukraine to the Russian oligarchy. Although Manafort was jettisoned from the campaign, his ties to the Ukraine were deep enough that the FBI was, indeed, investigating him. (Not to mention Trump “adviser” Carter Page.) Anything found yet? Who knows, because the FBI does not comment on ongoing investigations.
• Per an awesome Slate article: The Justice League of Computer Nerds (a name I made up but should be shouted from the rooftops) has discovered via DNS calls a covert server-to-server communication between a Trump “email” server and Moscow’s Alfa Bank, run by an old oligarchical buddy of…Vladimir Putin. As soon as the NYT asked them about it, the server name was changed. After the name was changed, the first computer to ping it was – Moscow. But then communication ceased entirely. Is this being investigated? Who knows, because the FBI does not comment on ongoing investigations.
• Per an awesome David Corn/Mother Jones Article: The Justice League of Former Spies (another made-up name but oh! so apropos) while performing opposition research (“oppo”) on Trump, learned from Russian sources that a long-term game to cultivate and influence Trump was in play. So compelling was the proof, that although they were working in a private capacity, they submitted their information to the FBI.  Does it lead anywhere? Who knows, because the FBI does not comment on ongoing investigations.

As if this big, smoky Trumpster fire were not enough, the one FBI thing that has been fairly well-documented has been the link from hacked Democrats to Wikileaks via Russian hackers, which Trump still denies in spite of his intelligence (hah!) briefings. So, clearly, Mister Fair And Even-Handed Don’t Appear To Be Withholding Info Comey would agree that THAT should have been public knowledge?

Not so much.

In fact, Comey argued AGAINST making that well-sourced and proven but hurtful to Trump information public because it was TOO CLOSE TO AN ELECTION. But when faced with the exact same determination to hurt Clinton on mere conjecture? No problem: send the memo toss that hand grenade.

But the FBI does not comment on ongoing investigations.

And Brutus is an honorable man.

The ballot board is made up of an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.  We certify signatures on the mail ballots.  Since all my customers here have a vested interest in mail ballots, I work on the board every election.

Yesterday on the ballot board, one of our mail ballots got tagged.  I asked the head election worker to please check why this voter was tagged and therefore we couldn’t approve his ballot signature on the back of his emailing envelope even though it matched his application signature.

She left and returned about 15 minutes later.  The voter had died last week.  The worker called his home and his wife explained that he had filled out his ballot just 4 days before he died.  The worker checked further and discovered that his ballot had been received in the elections office 2 days before he died.  She left it up to the board to decide whether or not to accept the ballot.

“Oh hell yeah,” I shouted in the Republican ear next to me, ” I’m a Democrat.  I’m used to voting dead people!”

They did not laugh and wanted to disallow the ballot.  Not on my watch.  I argue that if he had voted in person, there would be no way to recall his vote.  That settled it.  His ballot by mail vote counted.

Two things:  (1) Democrats do , indeed, vote dead people.  (2) Vote the first day of early voting or the day you get your ballot by mail because then, if you die, your vote still counts.  Do not toy with fate or despicable Republicans.

As long timers know, every election I work on the Ballot Board.  That’s the board that certifies the ballots by mail as being legitimate and then opening them all to be counted.  It’s tedious but important work.

It takes from 8:00 – 5:00 all week long and Tuesday for a while, too.

I was hoping that Da Chipster could take over for me this week but something has come up for him so you guys are pretty much on your own.  If nothing else, I will put up a couple of chat posts during the day so you can chat among yourselves about the news because I’m not getting news at all until I get home.

More later … first dinner.