NPR has just published a very good explanation of our problem in America, which is the cementing in of minority rule, and how its unsustainablity threatens democracy.  Over the years, especially since 2010, Republican gerrymandering has unfairly locked in Republic seats that are almost impossible to defeat by a Democrat.  Here’s the chart that shows the problem in the US House (click on the little one to get the big one):

This chart shows that since 2000, Republicans have controlled more seats than votes for them support and Dems much fewer.  Beginning in 2002 when states like Texas started mid-decade redistricting and using computers to do it, you can see the effect of the disenfranchisement of millions of voters all over the country by giving disproportionate representation to those who received less votes.  Only in 2008 when the Obama election turned out so many voters did the House come anywhere near parity between number of votes and seats won.  The problem WILL get worse with this year’s continued gerrymandering which the Supreme Court has condoned by turning a blind eye to the corrosion of partisan gerrymandering.  That’s how you get permanent majorities in states like Wisconsin and North Carolina where Republicans get over 70% of the seats no matter what the vote.

The Senate is worse.  You now have a situation where the majority of Americans are ruled by a minority of voters because each state gets two Senators no matter the population.  As population continues to move, you’ll have 30% of Americans controlling 70% of the representation in the Senate.

The system is broken and getting worse, and the US can no longer call itself a republic governed by democratic principles.  This is why electing autocrats, especially to the WH, is so incredibly dangerous.  Many state legislatures are broken, the Congress is most certainly broken, and the Supreme Court is broken if not outright corrupt.  The only tool that remains to keep us from sliding into the abyss of autocracy is the presidency.  That’s why keeping Republicans out of the WH is so critical and reform of our Democracy mandatory.

I understand the gravity of eliminating the filibuster for when the Dems lose the Senate again, but if they don’t, they’ll lose the House and Senate in 2022, and risk never winning again in our lifetimes.  Having lost the WH, the House and the Senate during  the last 4 years, Republicans have launched a full frontal assault on voting  in 43 states, filing over 250 bills with the goal of making it harder to vote.  These bills include new laws that reduce voting hours, shorten early voting days, purge mail voter lists, limit polling locations, reduce drop box locations, require printed voter ID in mail in ballots, severely restrict eligibility for absentee voting, and in Arizona, allow the Legislature to overturn election results by simple majority.  If successful, Republicans will have such a locked in advantage that it will be impossible for voters to control their own destiny in the states, and therefore the US Congress.

These Republicans are lying, of course, that their intent is to “restore faith” in the election system after they joined Trump in claiming non-existent voting fraud, CAUSING that loss of faith.  One politician even said it out loud this week; he’s Arizona Rep John Kavanaugh, who chairs the Government and Elections Committee in the Arizona House.  Talking about the 24 bills filed to suppress voter turnout, Kavanaugh said,

“There’s a fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans.  Democrats value as many people as possible voting, and they’re willing to risk fraud. Republicans are more concerned about fraud, so we don’t mind putting security measures in that won’t let everybody vote — but everybody shouldn’t be voting.”

“Not everybody wants to vote, and if somebody is uninterested in voting, that probably means that they’re totally uninformed on the issues.  Quantity is important, but we have to look at the quality of votes, as well.”

The translation of Kavanaugh’s statement from GOPish to English is, “We only want people who agree with us to vote.”  It’s that simple, and it is a desperate last ditch attempt to keep power even if it means trampling all over the rights of millions and millions of Americans.  There should be no doubt in all Americans’ minds the seriousness of this issue.  Having a cemented in a gerrymandered advantage, these laws could achieve what Tom DeLay and Turd Blossom sought twenty years ago, a permanent majority for the GOP.  These laws, if passed and not stopped in the courts, would mark the end of democracy in the US.  With the Roberts Court’s record of laying waste to the Voting Rights Act and other anti-democratic opinions, I have zero confidence that, with a 6-3 majority, the court will suddenly regain its sanity and overturn these new laws.

The Congress must pass a new Voting Rights Act 2.0 that reinstates federal oversight to changes in voting laws by Jim Crow states that went nuts after the tragic 2013 Shelby ruling and went right back to doing precisely what Roberts said they wouldn’t do, suppressing minority voting rights.  They also need to make non-partisan redistricting a federal law and to standardize voting systems to protect the rights of all voters.  The Congress can only do this by eliminating the filibuster and passing these laws as quickly as possible before the 2022 elections.  Not doing so could have disastrous consequences for American voters, and fulfilling DeLay’s and Turd Blossom’s dream of a permanent majority.

Every year, the Eurasia Group, a political risk management and consulting group, issues its report on the top ten global risks of international crisis.  This year’s report is profoundly disturbing, especially the largest risk it identifies.  Who is it? Is it Iran? Saudi Arabia? Russia?  Nope.  It’s the US and its broken political system.  Before we talk about this, let’s look at all ten:

1. Delegitimizing of our elections in US.
2. The decoupling of US and China technology cooperation.
3. US/China relations.
4. Multi-National Corporations in conflict with emerging nation/states.
5. Upheaval in India as social policies are causing economic downturns
6. Geopolitical influence of Europe as pushes back against the US and China.
7. Politics vs economics in climate change.
8. US policies toward Shia led nations.
9. Discontent in Latin America.
10. Turkey – pretty much everything.

These risks are all disturbing and obvious to geopolitical observers, but the first risk is scary in that it recognizes the shambles our own political system is in.  It talks about how Trump is greatly worsening the situation through his immoral and illegal behavior, but expresses great concern that he has already delegitimized the 2020 election by claiming that if he loses it’s because the election was “rigged”.  If he wins, the majority of Americans will believe it was rigged the other way (with the help of the Republicans and the Russians) and many won’t accept the result.  It is a lose-lose situation, and with Republicans enabling and protecting Trump, the crisis is unavoidable, especially since they’ll acquit him in the Senate trial emboldening him more if that’s even possible.  I mean, after all, he’s now announced that the only way he’s going to communicate with Congress is through Twitter.  Jesus.

None of this will end well, even in the remote chance that by some miracle he’s removed from office.

For the first time EVER, a federal court has struck down a state redistricting plan as being unconstitutional because it was a partisan gerrymander purely for political advantage.  The United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit issued the ruling yesterday calling the North Carolina plan a violation of the 14th Amendment guarantee of equal protection.  More important, the ruling was unanimous.  In a blazing 191 page opinion, Judge James A. Wynn, Jr. said the Republican plan was “motivated by invidious partisan intent” designed to advantage Republicans over Democrats in a permanent unfixable majority.  Case in point, in the 2016 election, the vote for House seats split 53-47 Republican to Democrat, but seats were won 10-3.  So, a 6% advantage turned into 77% control. Judge Wynn also cited the Republican representative who drew the map saying:

Boom.

Looking at the North Carolina map (and many others, like Texas) one with a functioning pair of eyes and at least a teaspoon of common sense would call those maps unfair.  The Supreme Court has tried for decades to avoid ruling on gerrymandering, and has even ruled that partisan gerrymandering is OK, but recent extreme examples like North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Texas has brought the issue to forefront once again, and the courts are finally starting to come out of their collective judicial comas.  Computer based algorithms allow mapdrawers to slice and dice neighborhoods in ways never dreamed possible in years past.  The Supreme Court has turned a blind eye and has allowed gerrymandering to become a terminal cancer on democracy if it’s not stopped.  It degrades confidence in the system and drives radical partisanship.  If anyone doubts that, look up idiots like Louie Gohmert, Blake Farenthold, Sheila Jackson Lee, John Culberson and many others.  Over 90% of House seats are uncompetitive.  Because of gerrymandering, representatives answer to a minority base to the detriment of all other constituents.  They rake in money while being grossly negligent of their Constitutional duties.

Enough of this is enough.  Perhaps this ruling will finally force the Supreme Court to stop radical gerrymandering and drive the states to pass non-partisan redistricting commissions.  It’s long past time that we take redistricting out of the hands of those who are advantaged by their corruption and put into the hands of those who are supposed to be served.

Gerrymandering has been blood sport in the US almost since the founding where partisans established districts that favored one party over another.  Both sides did it for decades up until computer modeling raised it to an art form in the early 2000s.

Starting in 2002, pushed by good ol’ Tom Delay, Texas Republicans rammed through a mid-decade redistricting that turned state politics on its head to take control of the state house and delegation to Washington.  The result has been a slow death spiral of our state by almost every measure causing declines in education, health care, and infrastructure lead by screwballs like Louie Gohmert, Dan Patrick, and Blake Farenthold.

To make matters worse, Republicans, knowing that their constituency of white angry people is aging and shrinking, have continued to tighten their grip to maintain power as the demographics of Texas push them into the minority.  When they yet again gerrymandered Texas districts in 2011, using computer technology and a technique called “packing and cracking”, people who tend to vote Democratic were either packed into small districts or spread out so much that their votes didn’t count.  These techniques discriminate against not only white Democrats, but disproportionately affect Hispanics and African Americans.

Friday, the story began to change when the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals threw out the redistricting plan of 2011 saying,

“The record indicates not just a hostility toward Democrat districts, but a hostility to minority districts, and a willingness to use race for partisan advantage.”

The court also noted the “strong racial tension and heated debate about Latinos, Spanish-speaking people, undocumented immigrants and sanctuary cities.”  Finally, a federal court has spoken the truth about those who lead Texas – that they’re racists.  The record of open hostility to minorities convinced the majority that this wasn’t just simple gerrymandering, which is bad enough, but actually a strategy to keep the votes of racial minorities from counting.

This judgment will very likely end up in an appeal to the Supreme Court.  In the meantime, Texas has to go back to the drawing board.  It’s about time.

In a 2-to-1 ruling by the United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin said that the Legislature’s remapping in 2011 violated both the First Amendment and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment because it aimed to deprive Democratic voters of their right to be represented.  Finally, a court has been brave enough to take on gerrymandering, and Wisconsin was a good place to start.

The court used a simple mathematical calculation to measure gerrymandering called (more…)