As you already know, Biden announced today that he was stepping aside from his candidacy for president as expected.  It was the right decision, and even though I believe he should have never tried to run again, I appreciate him coming around.  He’s been one of the most consequential presidents in modern US history and his legacy is secure.  He’s endorsed Kamala Harris as his choice for president.  As I think about it, she’s probably the wisest choice for now, though personally not my first choice to run against TFG.  However, she has the qualifications and the moxie to take the fight to him.

Kamala will need the right VP choice to have her back and to bring votes from the battleground states.  I have two picks: First, Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania.  He’s taken on TFG’s election lies directly as an AG, and is super well spoken like Kamala.  My second pick is Roy Cooper of North Carolina.  He’s also a former AG, and has fought (and beaten) Republicans on the own ground.   A third possible in my view is Mark Kelly, senator from Arizona, husband to Gabby Giffords, and retired astronaut, but his election could cost us the Senate through a special election.  All of these guys are stronger than dirt, and, at the risk of pissing off some customers, they’re white guys, which is going to be important to help bring in votes from a broader base of voters.  Sorry, but it’s a fact.

Anyway, good on Joe for stepping aside.  It was a tough, but correct decision.  Nate Silver and other analysts won’t have numbers for a week or so; then we’ll have an idea how uphill the battle the Dems have.  But at least they now have a chance.

Biden is still isolating at his beach house in Delaware recovering from his latest case of Covid.  While that goes on discussions are still swirling about his ultimate decision about his candidacy at pretty much all levels from party leaders, talking heads, WH staff, and the rest of us.  His numbers are terrible and getting worse as this controversy drags on.  Here are few interesting items this morning:

The Washington Post has an interesting infographic about how a new nominee would be elected by convention delegates describing different scenarios should Biden step aside.

Federal staff is already dusting off their resumes preparing for a Biden loss.  This is not unusual in election years or during times of serious uncertainty but is pretty urgent right now.

Here is a graphic of the changes in battleground states from 2020 to 2024.  The outlook is nothing more than dismal for Biden:

Finally, the NYTimes has an article about the what if question of Kamala Harris as the nominee should Biden pull the plug on his campaign.

I believe this will be decision week for Biden.  TFG/Hillbilly are already ramping up attacks against Kamala anticipating she’ll be the nominee.  His laughable “unity” reset lasted something like 28 minutes during his speech at the RNC;  he’s already in full TFG bullshit mode while Hillbilly is calling for DOJ investigations of writers and researchers who dare criticize the Dictator Wannabe.  It’s a snapshot of what the world would become should the unthinkable happen.  I’ll post a link about this when CBS posts the video about it from Face the Nation this morning.

The NYTimes is reporting what all of us can just imagine, that Biden is pissed about his long term allies abandoning him after long years of loyal public service.  He’s still isolating at his Delaware beach home, trying to get over yet another case of Covid as his campaign crumbles around his ears.  What’s happening is tragic, and most certainly not fair to Biden, especially after the events of 2016.  2016?  Read on.

I find it pretty rich that the very people who are whining and hissing through gnashed teeth about the calls for Biden to step aside in 2024 are the very ones who gleefully celebrated pushing him aside during the 2016 election because it was Hillary’s “turn”.  It was unfair, unwise, and strategic blunder.  Pushing Hillary in front of Biden is the precise reason that TFG is even around today.  Let’s review: Immediately after the 2012 election, Obama handed Hillary the keys to the DNC.  She immediately fired all of the senior staff, installed her loyalists, including Debbie Wasserman Schultz, unwound all the reforms that Obama had put in place, and began building a huge wall of money to keep out all other viable candidates before the primaries even started.  Those efforts were aimed directly at Biden to push him aside and keep other candidates like Bernie at arm’s length.  How?  I’ll tell you how.

The Joint Fundraising Agreement Hillary forced onto the DNC in 2015 was actually a giant money laundering operation that washed money from donations to state parties through the DNC and then immediately to her campaign coffers.  That kept the DNC and state parties starving for money and all of the control in Brooklyn, not in DC.  DNC staff had to run EVERYTHING by Brooklyn, including hiring, press releases, primary process, EVERYTHING. The result was that a candidate, who had not even been nominated yet, was in total control of the primary process.  Another irony is that all of this was discovered through WikiLeaks’ leaking of DNC emails which marked  the trail that Donna Brazile later followed to get to the bottom of the corruption.  The public scandal was “Hillary’s emails;” the actual scandal was Hillary’s complete control of the DNC and rigged primary process fully ONE YEAR before she won the nomination.

Mad about Biden now?  Blame Hillary.  And those who supported her.  The Queen of Coasting blew it by pushing Biden to the curb, and not taking TFG seriously, and not campaigning in battleground states when she desperately needed to as she started slipping in the polls.  Add her incompetence to meddling by the Russians, Clinton Foundation scandals, and the ridiculous “Hillary’s emails” scandal, and you get the disaster we all witnessed live on national television.  Hillary was clearly qualified to be president, but as I’ve said many times before, a TERRIBLE candidate and incompetent manager.  Oh, and one last thing; Biden didn’t pull out of the 2016 campaign because his son Beau died; that was a diversion.  Biden bowed out because Hillary boxed him out with Obama’s assistance.  Those are the facts.

So, while you’re all pissed off about Biden being treated unfairly in 2024, remember that you probably supported him being treated REALLY unfairly in 2015.  And, in 2015, he was a vibrant well conditioned, fast on his feet 72 year old.  The tragedy is that, but for Hillary’s corruption and mismanagement, added to Obama’s benign neglect of the DNC, Trump would still be playing golf and losing money while putting his name on cheesy buildings in Asia rather than getting ready to waltz back into the White House in 2024.

So, get over yourself and read the objective numbers.  It’s a cold hard truth, but the 2024 election is already lost unless Dem leaders move quickly and decisively.  After all, they’re 4 years behind, and they’ve got three months to have any chance of pulling this out.

Through talking heads, Biden is still vowing to stay in even with major party leaders, donors, and now unions starting to back away.  Local 3000 of the United Food and Commercial Workers, with a 50,000 person membership, is now calling for Biden to withdraw.  Even Shawn Fain of the UAW is expressing doubts, and the president of the Association of Flight Attendants is voicing concerns about his candidacy.

According to Nate Silver, Biden’s chance of winning the Electoral College has dropped below 26% and betting platform Polymarket are now handicapping him at a whopping 6% success.

Among likely candidates to replace Biden, Witmer has interestingly begun rising to the top.  Another betting platform, Manifold, is handicapping her at 55% to beat TFG in the general, but there’s obviously a lot of noise in all the numbers, especially since Biden continues to insist he’s still in while the calls for him to step aside are growing louder.  There’s now some talk of a floor fight if he doesn’t yield, but I’m not sure how that can happen since his delegates are obligated to vote for him on the first ballot, unless the final convention rules get amended at the start.

This shit show is most certainly going to turn into a shit festival if this is not resolved, and soon.  Every single poll, every single number, every single risk factor points to a Biden withdrawal, yet he’s hanging in.

Tick, tick, tick.

Obama has told close associates that Biden staying in the race is hurting all other races especially the House and Senate.  Pelosi continues to work behind the scenes.  Ball’s in Biden’s court – it’s just a matter of time, and not much time.

Schumer and Jeffries have had hard conversations with Biden in the last few days, using data that Biden is behind TFG and falling farther behind.  They’ve also told him that the money is drying up and that major donors are now withholding funding.  Adam Schiff, who is now running for Senate in California, also publicly called for Biden to step aside warning that the Dems could lose the Senate if he doesn’t.  Pelosi is also said to be working behind the scenes to let Biden down easy.  Other Dems have also talked to him and have described as delusional his belief that he’s either tied or leading TFG in the polls.  We’re starting to see cracks in his resolve, though, it’s now being reported that Biden said he’d drop out if a doctor told him he had a medical condition that would prevent him from doing his job.  At least that’s a start.

As a reality check for those who are still laboring under the illusion that Biden can win this, here’s Nate Silver’s latest analysis from earlier today:

Time to face facts; Biden’s candidacy is over, and the longer he waits to step aside, the more humiliating it will be for him.  The pressure is ratcheting up on a daily basis and there’s no sign it will weaken.  Today Schumer got the DNC to postpone a virtual nomination vote, which was an attempt to cram Biden down the delegates’ throats before they convened.   That vote won’t happen now until the first week of August, though it’s still scheduled before the convention.

We’re coming down to it.  I’ll be surprised if this tragic episode lasts much longer than sometime next week.  We’re long past time that this change should have been made.  The time is NOW.