Bumpless at the Bottom
da Chipster
The first night of the 2012 Democratic National Convention is in the books and – man! – it was one for the books! The Honorable Julian Castro, mayor of San Antonio (where my mama is from) rocked the house, and showed the GOP what a real future of Hispanics in politics (and America) looks like, and Michelle was, quite simply, stunning.
But the real story emerging Tuesday was the lack of bump for Rmoney-Lyin coming out of the Republican National Convention. Typically, a ticket receives much more favorable poll ratings in the days immediately following their convention, sometimes upward of 20 points. And this makes sense, when voters have just been subjected to a 3-day pep rally glorifying the candidate and excoriating his opponent.
In recent years, however, this bump has been much less. 2004, 2008 and now, 2012 have all shown bumps under 5%. There are a couple of reasons for that. First, 24-hour news channels have extended the horse race for President to a 2-year marathon, so you’re getting a lot more exposure prior to the convention. Second, convention coverage has dwindled on networks, so out of a 72-hour infomercial, we only see a few hours of the high-profile speakers, most of whom we are well familiar with.
Furthermore, my favorite mathematician, Nate Silver, has shown that in the course of the last week, Obama’s chances for re-election have gone UP to better than 3 in 4. Bookmark that site, it’s beauteous.
What this means in practical terms for this election is similar to what it meant for 2004. You can’t run an entire campaign saying “I’m not him” unless you’re Jimmy Carter in 1976 and the “him” is the specter of Richard Nixon.
If, however, you are Mitt Romney, noted liar, cultist (to Evangelicals, I could care less what planet his “god” is from) and out-of-touch zillionaire with the lowest likability ratings since Simon Legree, it means that at what should be your high point, you’re still looking up from the bottom of a very deep well…and it’s starting to rain.
(PS: Customers, any Susan/Bubba sightings on the TeeVee or Interweb videos?)
Right at the beginning of Castro’s speech, MSNBC did a quick pan of the Texas delagation and I did see Susan. I waved. My daughter rolled her eyes and left the room.
McCain got more of a bump from the loons who swooned over Sarah. Lyin Ryan ain’t much to swoon over, although John Stewart seems to think he’s hot.
1da chipster. A fine post!
2Nate is failing to see that Romney DID get a 20 point bump from his convention. (In my rabidly republican neighborhood, all the bumper stickers say McCain/Palin.) Next week will be the tell. Obama will be up forty if they keep the convention on the tracks it’s currently on!
3Thought I saw Bubba. Didn’t see Susan, but I could have been pouring a glass of wine.
4Yes! I think I saw Susan – sitting in a aisle seat with a big smile on her face during the prime-time speeches. I tried to look for the most sparkly/shiny lady in the room, but it was harder then it sounds.
5Read that Ryan is claiming that Dems don’t have “God” in their platform while GOP had the word 10 times in theirs. That’s the difference between Democrats and Republicans: They have to keep shouting about their faith because their actions reveal the only “God” they understand is the one printed on greenbacks.
I’m feeling much better now that we’ve unleashed people like Tammy Duckworth and Michelle Obama. Good job Chip.
6Great column Chip, thanks. I thought I saw Bubba yesterday at Hardball. It is rather like “Where’s Waldo” with the crowds, tho. Keep looking for Where’s JuanitaJeanHerOwnself and Bubba.
7Think I saw Susan when Mayor Castro began his speech. Susan, or the lady I mistook for her, was grinning and cheering. Keep sparkling, Susan!
8I guess I gotta go watch the speeches again. I really was looking for ANY TEXANS I recognized. Yeah Susan and Bubba!! Thanks for the good column, Chipster. And while you’re at it, regardless of what The Kid said (and he done well) the war in Afghanistan IS still going on. Make noise.
9With every crowd shot I was looking, but no luck yet.
10Came home from making calls to registered voters in New Hampshire (Vermont is pretty dependably blue) to watch the later speeches and was BLOWN AWAY! I didn’t see Tammy Duckworth, but Julian, Deval Patrick, Gov. Strickland, Michelle – whew! Lily Ledbetter brought tears to my eyes.
11I am looking forward to hearing Elizabeth Warren tonight and hope it vaults her into the lead in Mass. I can’t believe Scott Brown is even CLOSE!
What Sam said. LOUDLY! And with ENTHUSIASM!
12I could hardly take a pee break last night things were so exciting. I’m a San Antonio-an and I was about to break open with pride. Got a quick email from JJ yesterday when I told her how proud of her I was.
DaChipster and all the rest of you: please check this out: http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/09/05/romney_mexican/
13George Romney, father of the infamous Mitt, started his life here in America on WELFARE. Mitt’s mom says so. Make it go viral and we’ll hoist them with their own petard. (What is a petard? should I be ashamed to say it?)
I think I saw the same blonde lady TexasEllen saw … don’t know if that was JJ or not but I’m pretty sure I did see her hubby … his goatee is pretty identifiable! I’m glued to MSNBC for the night … waiting to hear that other Bubba aka Bill Clinton!! Our CO Gov. Hickenlooper will be speaking tonight, too! But Bill Clinton will, hopefully, outshine them all!
Have a great evening and keep on the look out for JJ & Bubba!!
14Honey, TexasEllen would know me even if they ran me through a grinder and made me into a molded Jello salad. We have been friends since Elvis died.
15Elvis died?
16I know this is really getting ahead of things, but Julian Castro’s daughter is going to be a star someday!
17What a beautiful child! And Olympic hair flipper.
LOL!!!
Having watched the DNC tonight, do you think it’s possible that we could re-elect President Obama and former President Bill Clinton as a team?
18Juanita Jean- I looked for you tonight when the Texas delegate cast its vote. I’m sitting her in San Diego saying “you go girl!”
19Thanks daChipster — great job. And Sam in Kyle, ditto and then some.
20Hey Cindy D, the most modern translation would be “blown up with your own ammo” which is most appropos to the NRA Party, if you ask me.
21A petard was a small bomb used to blow open the gates and doors of castles and other fortifications. There’s a great explication on Wiki that uses the quote from Shakesspeare’s Hamlet to illustrate. Thanks for giving me an excuse to exercise my brain this morning!
BTW Chip great post and I’m workin on an Eagles rip off “…there ain’t no way to hide your Ryan lies…” think it’s got possibilities?
And to everybody, I sure have missed you all! Your sense of humor really keeps me going!
22I finally spotted JJ and Bubba for a nanosecond on the TV machine. It was impossible to miss Bubba’s shirt!
23I missed the first night because I had to work late and then drive the 3 hours home, but last night the Big Dog kicked ass and took names. That’s the only way I can describe it. Anyone who could watch that speech and still vote Republican is more small-minded than I can even imagine.
24What is NOT to love about Bill Clinton? NOTHING … and I ask the same about Obama and Clinton together … What is NOT to love about these two men? NOTHING …
Doggone it … I was on MSNBC and Rachel and the Gang just kept yakking when Gov. Hickenlooper had his speech … I hope he did a good job! I switched to C-Span where there were NO interruptions and NO ads and no one trying to explain what we just heard and saw! I love the MSNBC folks, but sometimes they just talk too much! LOL
25Aggieland Liz–
26Now that song is running thru my brain– it’s a hit– take to utube and sing it loud!!
What a great set of human beings at the convention, from the mightiest to the vendors, all working and showing the world what real Americans– not the “world citizens” who have billions and can live anywhere, but real made it from the ground up Americans are like– JJ/Susan you go girl, I’m so proud to know you.!!