Bernie Loses Wyoming (kinda)
Those darn caucuses! You never know what’s going to happen, and what you think happened when it does, didn’t actually happen how you think it did when it’s done. Just ask Donald Trump, who is hemorrhaging delegates to Ted Cruz at state conventions that he thought he had already “won” at the precinct level.
In similar fashion, due to the vagaries of Wyoming Democratic politics, the estimated take from Bernie’s big “win” yesterday there is: Sanders 7, Clinton 7. Given that all 4 Wyoming superdelegates have already declared for Hillary, you can add the Cowboy State to Sanders long string of pyrrhic “victories,” where he outspent and outperformed Clinton, yet gained little ground, while she husbanded her resources and marshaled them for the fight yet to come.
“Seven in a row,” they crow, conveniently forgetting the size, scope and implications of those seven, versus the seven in a row Hillary had won prior to that. All these contests have taken place over the last month, since the surprising Michigan win gave Bernie another apparent good night, even as he lost ground to Hillary’s blowout in Mississippi. She then went on a run that included closed, semi-open and open primaries. Plus the Marianas! Those victories netted her 115 more delegates than Bernie. Then the worm turned, and Bernie went on a tear, winning 6 caucuses and an open primary.
Net gain? 79. By contrast, Hillary netted 68 out of Florida alone during her run. Tell Sad Trombone he’s on in five.
And so, in the long month since Bernie’s Michigan win was said to signal his resurgence, he’s lost ground to the tune of 36 delegates. It doesn’t sound like a lot, until you remember that, between the two of them, they’ve burned through nearly 1000 delegates during the same time. He’s STILL 250 delegates down, with 1727 remaining. A month ago, he needed to win 55% of the remaining pledged delegates to go into the convention tied. Now, that’s climbed to 57%.
He has just about run out of runway, especially when you consider that the only two remaining caucuses are the US VI and Guam, each with 7 delegates. Also, most of the remaining primaries are closed, meaning only registered Democrats can vote. Why is this paragraph important? Because, quick! name all the non-caucus states where Bernie won an actual primary.
New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Vermont, Michigan and Wisconsin – all open primaries. And, to be fair, he did win one closed primary: Democrats Abroad.
Recognizing that the pledged delegate count is out of reach, the Sanders campaign has shifted tactics and is hoping to convince all the superdelegates – the previously reviled and roundly criticized anti-democratic superdelegates – to change from Hillary to him. And that’s a little sad.
Thanks for some clarification on what has become the most weird primary election process I can recall.
Caucuses, primaries, super delegates……. super confusing.
1Since the majority of Americans now self-declare as “independent,” closed primaries represent a pretty poor avenue for democracy for twenty-first century voters.
“Democrats” and “Republicans” are just two elite clubs, complete with club colors and mascots, to which we have somehow come to surrender everyone’s rights to representation.
The gridlock we now experience in Congress is just the natural evolution of such an exclusive system. Without the possibility of coalitions forming among multiple parties, compromise goes out the window as the two parties inevitably drift toward polar extremes.
It’s laughable that we think we are in a position to lecture the rest of the world on democracy.
2(>.<) Climbing out on a limb here and hoping my Captain Obvious 'chute deploys with a message to Tad Devine.
Dear Tad,
For months now it has been said that Bernie doesn't do well in states with closed primaries. You know, those states in which a person must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary. Now just maybe, while you're waiting to introduce Bernie to the waiting throngs of thousands, do you think you might get off your posterior and pass out little 4×8 card with instructions on how to register to vote and declare as a Democrat? I know. That sounds simple.
~signed
a simple guy from Nevada
PS Debbie WTF Schultz, please feel free to steal the idea and register a few more Democrats before Nov.
3Just some thoughts about this primary season for Democrats.
1. This is not a right of center populice.
2. The term “inevitable” candidate is not a sure thing when a virtually unknown candidate can give her a run for the money.
3. The Citizen’s United way is not the only way to get money to run.
4. Some interesting things have been brought out in this election, actually based on facts.
5. Getting a usually non-voting group involved is not necessarily a bad thing.
Just some points to ponder.
4It is becoming ever so much clearer that of the two of them, Hillary is the policy wonk who has thought things out from A to Zed. Bernie, not so much. Great ideas but no follow through o how to put the ideas on roller skates and get them across the finish line. This is really rather confusing. The guy has been on Capitol Hill (both sides) for so many years but he has really, really dropped the ball when it is so necessary to get it down the court.
5Primo,
I see the logic behind the superdelegate math, but is “inevitability” always applicable? As I recall, in 2007 Hillary had a lot of superdelegates pledged to her…and then a guy named Obama showed up to the party. Obviously a number of them must have flipped, but I cannot find a good reference or statistics on how many, and when, Hillary’s 2008 campaign derailed and Obama turned the tide in that election cycle. If someone could point me to a good link, I’d appreciate it.
6 months may not seem like a long time, but in an election year a lot can – and does – happen. Are we really ready to write off Sanders yet?
6Sue Prent -agreed!
“It’s laughable that we think we are in a position to lecture the rest of the world on democracy.” That in a nutshell is an excellent description of what the snacilbupeR refer to as ‘American Exceptionalism.’ I call it hubris.
As for closed primaries, consider that a matter for educating voters. The rules vary by state, but it’s not that hard for an Independent or member of either party to register or re-register to vote in the primary of their choice.
I learned from the best. My Dad is a very educated Independent voter. In the past he has done some sneaky chit like registering to vote for McCain vs Dubya. Options are never limited for the thinking man or woman. As a family we beat the rush this year and re-registered to caucus for Bernie. Except, of course, my wife Jane; the smartest member of the family, she was already a registered Democrat.
Fun thought for the fall. If Donnie Drumpf goes 3rd party, there’s room for Bernie to go Green and actually be on the ballot is all 50 states. Small d democracy can work, if efforts are made to educate voters.
7Dear Primo:
Please use a larger font. My eyes ain’t what they use’d ta be.
8We need to unify ALL progressives, Democrats and Independents behind one Democratic candidate to ensure that NO Rethuglican even comes close to winning the White House.
9We can’t win if Bernie pulls a Ralph Nader.
You have to have the great ideas to begin with, and then assemble a capable team of ‘policy wonks’ to carry them out.
If you had followed Bernie’s thought process for thirty years as I have, you would understand that what he is doing is proposing a new vision for America that will depend upon voters investing in that idea and bringing it to fruition through subsequent elections.
It is the ‘policy wonk’ in Clinton that says, “no we can’t” to measures to ensure a just society that have been successfully adopted by most other developed nations. He has given good explanations as to how those measures can be funded if we have the will to do so.
We elect a president to set a visionary agenda for the nation.
Bernie has been specifically working on banking issues for many years now in Congress and he will not be pressed into giving facile answers as to how the banks can be broken up when there are clearly many moving parts involved.
10Brian Eckert, I don’t know what browser you are using. But, if you google “how to increase font size in browser” there are easy instructions for whichever browser you are using that will adapt the print to your desired comfort.
11I like Bernie–politically I’m closer to him than to Clinton–but I also like her a lot and believe she would be a more effective President. I also really, really like her record on women’s rights given that we are a little over half the population.
And some of Bernie’s followers are nuts–as much idealogues as any Repub. I’m hoping the worst misogynists are actually right-wing trolls, but even the true believers don’t seem to understand what we’re up against. The fact that the two parties control our elections is bad idealistically, but it’s also a fact. Wanting to destroy the Democratic party (or Clinton) is not a good idea. It ends up causing things like this: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/04/bernie-voters-not-very-interested-non-bernie-democrats
12Interesting – those that appear to rationalize picking Clinton, a repub lite, vs Sanders, an old-timey Dem where the dnc and the dem insider elites seem to be using the same stack-the-deck tactics of the rethugs to get one of their own insider elites the nod. Experience vs character? Do some think Bernie is too naive, ignorant, to not pick advisors that have the knowledge he doesn’t have at the moment? When a prez makes a decision, for whom is he/she going to favor? Who has the better track record of consistent judgement regarding progressive goals? Do we try for a real shot at changing the system nearly everyone here disparages or go for the same-old-same-old because it’s “safer” or some other irrelevant reason regarding ability to fairly govern for the populace as a whole; eg., 1st female prez? Caveat; I’d vote for Warren in a heart beat. Had she decided to run, I believe Bernie would not have run.
13maryelle, I hear you. Bernie has already promised that he won’t run as an Independent.
My suggestion to which the biggest part was the ***if*** word. The if being (maybe should have been **if only**) if Donnie Drumpf splits the snacilbupeR with Loathsome Ted, there’s a path for Bernie to win with the Green Party in a four way race.
14Truth in advertising message: I’m for Bernie Sanders because poll after poll shows he can win the general election easily. Hillary Clinton is a very iffy proposition. If the Democrats nominate Hillary, I intend to vote Green.
There are a two major problems with Hillary Clinton as Democratic candidate that have nothing to do with Bernie Sanders: first, almost all of her victories were in southern/red states that the Democratic Party won’t carry in the general election; second, she has the highest unfavorability rating of any candidate. To amplify on the second point, about 70,000 people have signed a pledge never to vote for her. I have not heard of such a phenomena in any other election. I think those of us who want a progressive President ought to take into account these factors.
This election is like no other in my experience. Both parties are pretty much disliked by a sizable portion of the populace. Over 40% of citizens are independents. The Democrats are moderate Republicans; the Republicans are nuts; progressive Democrats or FDR Democrats have been disenfranchised. Some of the posts above make these points as well. My point is that Hillary Clinton will probably not do as well as her people hope and that, if the Republicans put up a candidate who looks even mildly sane, she could lose. People are very tired of voting for the lesser of two evils and the Clintons are seen as poor choices by much of the electorate. Politics as usual won’t work this time.
15I’m like LynnN in that I like Bernie and am also politically closer to him, and that I like Hillary also. The thing I do NOT like about Bernie is that he is not helping downticket Democrats raise money. If he is elected president, he is going to need a Democratic Senate and a House that has more Democrats than it has now (and fewer tea baggers). Hillary has raised millions for downticket Dems and the Democratic party because 1) she has been a Democrat much longer than Bernie and 2) she understands the need for Democratic allies in both houses of Congress. If you don’t have congressional support, you’ll have difficulty getting any of your programs passed. See Obama.
16“Since the majority of Americans now self-declare as “independent,” closed primaries represent a pretty poor avenue for democracy for twenty-first century voters.”
Sue, while they may “declare” as independent, a review of their actual voting history will show they have consistently voted either D or R. “Independent” is a label they give themselves, to make them feel superior to everyone else, nothing more.
note that most of those 7 “wins” were in states with highly white populations, a demo that Sen. Sanders is very popular with. states with a high level of diversity, not so much.
17I fear not if, but WHEN the Republican party explodes, the Trump worshippers will either get what they want or go rogue.
18Ted and the Teabaggers will do the same and what’s left may be up for grabs by a moderate Dem. That could be the beginning of a moderate coalition in congress as well, which could pave the way for progress after so many years of backsliding under Republican obstruction.
I’m sorry about the font. I don’t know what happened and I can’t figger out how to fix it.
Aghast Independent: 2008 was a much different circumstance, in 2007, than last year was today. First, she was still just into her second term as Senator, as opposed to Madame Secretary, and she was running against a much larger field including Joe Biden, John Edwards, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich, the proto-Bernie, all of whom could claim more experience, and many of whom controlled a swath of superdelegates among their supporters.
So superdelegates all kept their powder dry until much, much later. But none of them who did declare started flopping to Obama until two very key incidents happened: 1) Obama was winning 2) Ted Kennedy came out for him. Also in that time frame, all the other candidates had broken for him, one by one. Richardson, especially, was a blow to the Clintons, one they are still probably bitter over.
Obama won by winning early, building a big lead in delegates, and riding the percentages home. That is EXACTLY the strategy, and EXACTLY where we are today, in this election. Barring a Clinton catastrophe – and Big Dog eating his own shoe leather is NOT a catastrophe, it’s chronic and built in – her glide pattern is set and she’s approaching a soft landing.
I’ve been working on a thesis I just haven’t had time to research, and that is this: Hillary in 2015/16 is following the electoral trajectory of a sitting two-term Vice President, including the early wrap-up of endorsements and superdelegates, in the face of an under-funded populist challenge. There are no perfect analogies because of the way that primaries have constantly evolved over the last 50 years, so crunching the data to support my hunch is a daunting bit of a chore for my ADHD.
So combining that model with the Obama delegate strategy is why I’m pretty damn sure that – unless there is a gamechanger – Hillary will be the nominee, and I put the over/under at about 11 PM Eastern, June 7.
19– and Big Dog eating his own shoe leather is NOT a catastrophe, it’s chronic and built in –
Another Primo winner!
20Hillary’s unfavorability is the result of decades of Republican fake “scandal” mongering, which appears to have been moderately successful among white males & conservatives but not among Progressives and women. Her popularity with women and minorities has held strong.
21I am a moderate Democrat and I resent being told that makes me a Republican in any way, shape or form. Mine is the party of inclusion, civil rights, common sense, progressive ideas and financial regulation. I support the equality of women and minorities, Obamacare, social security, medicare, unions and a restrained military and ideas which make American life more livable for all.
“under-funded populist challenge.”
Who would that be? Bernie is hardly ‘underfunded.’
22I like Hil. shes big dogs brain. but would vote for Burn in a heart beat. To vote for a repug your IQ would have to be about fence post level
23What’s really sad is that the Democratic party is no more democratic than the other one is.
24Rasty Bob,
25“To vote for a repug your IQ would have to be about fence post level” Same with not voting at all. Sometimes democracy is about holding your nose and voting for the better choice. And there’s always a better choice.
old bob got it wrong– Clinton’s unfavorability is 52% vs 46% favorable, but Trump’s is 67% with 30% favorable. With adults under 35 and African-Americans, Trump is disliked 80 to 18, and with Hispanics 85 to 14. Even white men dislike him 51 to 47.
This in a poll reported here on March 31:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/31/nightmare-nominee-nobody-likes-donald-trump-not-even-white-men/
26Rhea, I don’t worry much about the poll #s with HRC. Her unfavorability numbers are solidly baked from years of carpet bombing by the snacilbupeR. While her favorable numbers can and do leap, as when she sweat and hog tied poor Trey for 13 hours. Whereas Drumpf and Crooze have their st00pid going for them. Those boys are capable of racking up a ton more unfavorable points all by their lonesome/loathsome selves. As for K-Sick, Samantha Bee can take him out with a couple of spot ads.
Something you or daChipster probably remember from 2008. The PUMAs? Was that anything similar to the imaginary Bernie Bros? From what I can gather both operations have a distinct aroma of snacilbupeR.
27Brian it’s easy see that line at the top that among other things tells you where you are on the web, there’s at the other side a “”- /100%/+” just keep upping the plus sign. I am a total dinosaur on computers but I tinker with that all the time. I also helped a friend whose mother’s computer went from English to French for some avant garde reason. Enough of that: Sadly, I think it would be a miracle if Bernie pulled off the nomination or the general election…HOWEVER I do think he was earned a place in the pantheon of democratic conscience, and all will be measured against the standard he promotes
28I’m not ready to write off Bernie. I like him a lot. I don’t like anyone who takes money from big money like Monsanto (see Bride of Frankenfood, Washington Post) and yes, Donald Trump. I’d love a woman for president, but not Hillary.
29Thanks, Primo. Bernie was supposed to roll out of Wyoming with the majorityl of the 14 delegates, especially considering the demographics and amount of $$$ he spent there. Maybe the ‘don’t ask me anything that scratches below the surface of my talking points’ interview had an impact. Who knows. Next week should be interesting. NY is a tough ballpark to play in (says the diehard Red Sox fan). They put Hillary through the wringer before electing her twice for Senate (and once for Pres in the primary). She is taking nothing for granted. Bernie left ‘home’ some 50 years ago. He should expect that his feet will be held to the same fire. They’ll want more than pivots to his narrow bandwidth.
30Superdelegates are anti-democratic. Terrible idea. It takes a Bernie to show why.
31For everyone who is refusing to vote for whichever Democrat wins the primary, there is one major, serious, important for a generation issue: the Supreme Court. If the rethugs win, kiss your Social Security, your Medicare, your civil rights, your abortion rights and your ACA goodbye, and get ready for many more adventures involving our military on foreign soil. it really is that simple.
32So much I could say, but another blogger has asked me to start a series of guest columns — and I have to show him how big a mistake he’s making.
‘
But, after I saw the Alaska raw numbers, I had to check Wyoming’s. And Bernie really showed his strength in thse two caucuses — and how gigantic an army he’s leading,
‘
Here are the raw numbers.
ALASKA
BS: 440
HC: 099
Total vote 539 voters.
WYOMING
BS: 156
HC: 124
Total vote 280 voters
Waytago, Bernie! That’s the way to show how strongly you are affecting the disaffected voter!
Come to think of it, that’s exactly what you are doing.
33Prup (aka Jim Benton) Those numbers are not voter totals. The 156/124 in Wyoming are the allocated SCDs (state convention delegates.) Welcome to the caucus system. Nevada does the same; it is fun, but there’s nothing sane about it.
For raw voter totals, you may need to check with one of the wire services or cable stations. Most state Democratic Parties don’t report the raw vote totals.
34Bull.
35Right, PKM, as Ted McLauglin explained to me, forcing me to give Bernie supporters a deserved apology, and only an explanation that that is the way MSN listed them, and I was too dumb to cross-check something that sounded SO GOOD. Hey, we are all human, meaning we goof, but sincere apologies.
36Prup (aka Jim Benton), no worries. Just didn’t want you to take those figures to another forum. The group here is well-behaved. Have seen some forums where an inadvertent typo is grounds for decapitation.
37Guy I know on another venue said Bernie’s acting like a team that got the last eight runs of the game, but the other team was leading by 12. I’m not a baseball fan, so I said, yeah, it’s like a horse race in which the loser was “coming on strong” and the jockey said it wasn’t fair because if the race had been longer his horse would’ve won.
Bernie has so far done nada for the down-ballot candidates and if the GOP hangs on to both houses of Congress, it won’t matter who the President is, because they’ll keep doing what they’re doing. It’s not like the House and Senate will suddenly fill with Independents if he gets the nomination and is elected…that’s not how our Constitution reads.
38@Brian Eckert: Are you on a Mac? If so, press either command key (to either side of the space bar) at the same time you press the = + key. The print will magically grow larger. If you’re on a Windows machine, press whatever key is equivalent to the command key.
39“Since the majority of Americans now self-declare as “independent,” ”
Yeah – about that – I’ll just refer you to Driftglass:
**************
“Most newly minted “independents” seem to be little more than Republicans who are fleeing the scene of their crime, but at the same time still desperately want believe in the inerrant wisdom of Rush Limbaugh. They are completely incapable of facing the horrifying reality that they have gotten every single major political opinion and decision of their adult lives completely wrong, so instead they double-down on their hatred of women and/or gays and/or brown people and/or Liberals, and blame them for the miserable fuckpit their leaders and their policies have made of their lives and futures.
Like German soldiers after the fall of Berlin, they have stopped running away from the catastrophe they created only long enough to burn their uniforms.”
40Tommy T, I’d be wrong to call the Democratic primary reminiscent of the Huey Long – FDR scrap. Bernie is close to FDR, but certainly no Huey Long firebrand. While Hillary is a Pritzker Democrat.
As for the snacilbupeR, a flood of them became “Independent” in their rush to forget voting for Dubya twice. Then there are the Libertarians, split between those who couldn’t spell librarian and those who only think they know what Ayn Rand meant.
41