A Word on Tactics
As you are reading this, you know that we have somehow avoided a shutdown until November. We know how this will go. The jackasses in Congress will do nothing for 40 or 41 days and then will make up a new crisis to explain why they are holding a gun to the country’s head. It’s as infuriating as it is predictable. I get the fatigue. I really do.
I’ve been called a number of things here. Neville Chamberlain is one of them. You can call me whatever name you want. I really don’t care all that much. The pushback is not on that level. People have been calling me names since I was in first grade. It really is nothing new and the intellectual level of namecalling is not really much beyond that of the first grader.
The question at hand was essentially how we should handle these brinkmanship moments we always seem to find ourselves in. It has been suggested that we play matador and let them win a round. Then, the people would see what a shutdown or default would do to the economy and those folks would never win another election again. If it only it were that easy.
This is very simple. There are three reasons why I disagree with this tactic. First, I know people that would be affected by furloughs. Sure, they end up getting paid following a shutdown, but that doesn’t ease their pain during the furlough. They are often scared and depending on how long they’ve been a civil servant they may not have enough of a nest egg to keep them afloat if a shutdown lasts more than a few weeks.
Real people will get hurt. This point can’t be repeated often enough. Of course, none of us are literally in position to prevent that or not, but from a collective point of view I don’t want to have that on my conscience. I don’t want to watch people suffer and think, “I could have prevented that, but chose not to.” To me that’s not really a choice at all.
We could call that two different reasons. There are the people you know that will suffer and also the people you don’t know. However, that may not be the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that the whole strategy rests on the belief that people will see who did this and remember on election day. Yet, the same assholes that did this back in 2018 are still there. They are the ones doing it again and they are the ones that conservative voters are cheering for.
Again, this can be one or two reasons based on how you interpret it. There are people now that simply will not see who is responsible even when it is plain in front of their face. There are others that will be angry in the moment and still somehow still vote for those sons of bitches anyway. So, in effect you are letting them burn it down for nothing. Some of these irrational voters will vote for the irrational actors that lie the match. These irrational voters will watch them throw gasoline on the fire and still think it is the fire fighter’s fault. In that world you have to keep fighting. You hope you sway just enough voters to keep fighting. It’s incredibly depressing. It’s incredibly exhausting. It’s incredibly frustrating. Unfortunately, the alternative is really no alternative at all.
Agreed on all points. Yes, it’s exhausting. But yes we must continue. We must all take slow, deep breaths and put one foot in front of the other. Just continue!
1I’ve been involved in many negotiations over the years. An impending deadline often triggers last-minute concessions on points the parties weren’t able to resolve earlier.
That said, in any negotiation strategy, one always sets out the “must have” minimums. If you can’t get the “must haves”, you must walk away.
Here, the MAGA Republicans refuse to negotiate. Given this, there’s no point in negotiating with the MAGA crowd. Make a concession, and they’ll just ask for more concessions. Their purpose isn’t to get a deal – they seek to humiliate the Democrats and reduce their popularity.
That’s not to say that Democrats should refuse to negotiate with Republicans. A deal where Kevin McCarthy negotiates in good faith, and honors the deals he’s already made, is a good one. There’s enough Democratic votes to keep Kevin in the Speaker’s chair unless all the Republicans unite against him.
Democrats goal in these negotiations should be to prevent the MAGA folks from gaining anything from this situation, and show them for the vile dregs that they are. Bipartisan deals where both sides agree to make concessions for the country’s good (without either side being forced to give up their “must haves”) will do this.
2As for people still voting for these sons of bitches, I offer a conversation overheard in a line to vote a few years ago here in Gillespie County. A lady asked about how to vote for a straight Republican ticket. “That’s what you’re supposed to do, right?”
No thought, no consideration of individual candidates. Just mark an “X” next to the “R” at the top of the ballot. One and done.
3Unfortunately Repubanon, you are bringing nuance and rationality to a debate that hasn’t had it. There is a difference in accepting a bad deal (which shouldn’t happen) and not even coming to the table (the nuclear option). These situations require constant communication. What are we fighting for and why are we doing it? That’s where the effort to fund Ukraine has failed. There are tangible US interests at play here but those aren’t being articulated.
4The threat of a shutdown now delayed until just before the holidays makes me wonder if there won’t be another can kicking till February. The wild card in this is the chaos caucus led by gaetz and the fight to oust Mccarthy. Since chaos is their goal, they might be successful inflicting the country in a lengthy shutdown. Then there’s Mcconnell who’s insisting funding for Ukraine will be restored by the end of the year. There are some really deep divides in the repugnantican party.
5With respect, Nick, I disagree. There’s been plenty of communication- but the MAGA Republicans think that if they treat the Democrats like they treated Kevin McCarthy, they can humiliate the Democrats and make them look spineless. This, in turn, helps Democrats lose elections. That’s the MAGA plan.
The answer is to go around the roadblock, and tell McCarthy that he can either negotiate in good faith, or the Democrats will walk. This removes the roadblock.
6“ Then, the people would see what a shutdown or default would do to the economy. If it only it were that easy.“
You’re right, it’s not that easy. My sister the Fox News addicted Republican has a Masters degree but is somehow unable to understand that 20 Republicans are creating this mess. I name names, she replies, “well Democrats & Republicans are both to blame.”
I’ve tried every which way to explain, even mentioned her stock portfolio went down 3.5% due to the uncertainty of a shutdown. She has a tidy investment portfolio, but still clips coupons – – and yet even the fact that 20 Republican idiots, at least one of whom is GED challenged (and certainly will never hold a Masters degree) torched a good pile of her money is impossible for her to comprehend.
She’ll gladly vote Republican again next election. Even for Trump. She says she doesn’t like Trump, but believes Biden is the root of all problems.
7thank you, Rick#6. That has been my experience as well. Burning down the house (or the country) never breaks through the wall of irrationality possessed by many voters. And they win because good people stay home (or are gerrymandered out of any say in their government).
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
8Which means playing a longer game. You don’t reclaim radicalized people as a general rule. You can certainly try and I get it when they are family or close friends but we must fight them on the educational front. Our kids are a blank slate. They don’t hate as easily and are generally more inclusive. You use that and make sure they have access to real information. This thing can turn but it takes a longer effort.
9Nick,
10I take it back about Chamberlain and apologize. Liz Cheney just brought up Neville. If I’m saying the same things as Liz cheney, I must be wrong.
It’s a lot more nuanced than what Chamberlain was going through. No one including me is advocating we capitulate and give them what they want. It’s more about the voters than the Republicans. There is no “well finally they will learn.” They won’t. So you fight tooth and nail and get the best deal you can.
11Nick, “They won’t. So you fight tooth and nail” is what I’ve been hoping you to see from you for a long time. I have always known we are on the same team but If you look over your oeuvre you will find a long series of carefully crafted efforts to reach the reasonable people on the other side. This only makes sense if, like Neville, :-), you believe the other side is acting in good faith. The Christians knew what they were getting when they held their nose and pulled the lever for Trump. An end to legal abortion. The Conservatives, aren’t! As history shows, they only care about the deficit when there’s a Democrat in the White House. Conservative is just an ostentatious label for people who want lower taxes on the wealthy. The “Values” crowd got their ideal candidate in the 45th, no more dog whistles. They could follow the President’s lead and give vent to their racism, homophobia, and xenophobia at the top of their lungs in the public square. The people who were ostensibly reasonable made a conscious decision to enable the worst of the GOP to for whatever twisted logic made it seem okay to put a carnival barker in the Oval office. Looking forward to reading your posts on how we can stop them instead of trying to convince them to see the light.
12Looks like Newsom punted on his Senate choice. He kept his word that he wouldn’t pick between the several candidates in the primary, and he ignored the Black Caucus who seemed to think that they should have a say in a state that they don’t represent. It’s going to be very hard for any progressive to throw rocks at Butler.
13What Wally says @12,
[“…but If you look over your oeuvre you will find a long series of carefully crafted efforts to reach the reasonable people on the other side….]
I’ve been chiding you about this for years.
14Good to see that you’re going to go with ‘fangs and claws’ from now on. After finally realizing that all the Rethugs are now all batshit crazy fanatics out to eliminate anyone who disagrees with them.
Go get ’em!
Thanks guys. Although I really haven’t shifted much. I think it’s more about semantics than anything else. One can be tough and polite at the same time. I say stay at the proverbial table and just say when you figure it all out we will be here.
If I ever gave the impression I was for caving or capitulating y’all completely misunderstood. I’ve always been for fighting but fighting smart. There are ways to get what you want. Biden has shown you can do this. So again it’s about tactics and not the objective.
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