Failure to Launch
In the midst of the bad news and the news of the weird is a bit of good news. Polls are simply data points at the end of the day. Numbers don’t lie by themselves, but people often lie about the numbers. However, it is impossible to look at the current poll data from 538 and think anything good is happening for Ron DeSantis.
Naturally, a comprehensive study of statistics evolves like peeling an onion. We could point out that he was polling near 40 percent at the beginning of the year and has dipped to nearly 20 percent now. That much is easy to see when looking at the graphic. The question of why is a lot more interesting and important. Obviously there are different theories here. A lot of it has to do with Trump and the weird hold he has over the party. Some of it is simply DeSantis himself.
Ultimately this is good news. 2016 should have taught us a very important lesson. There is a thought in party politics that you should root for the worst candidate to make it through the primary on the other side. After all, it would make it easier for your candidate to win. This was the thought in 2016. Clearly, no one in their right mind would choose Donald Trump, so why worry as he runs roughshod over the Republican primary?
Even as he was gaining access to the White House there was another thought that permeated through some circles on the left. Some people thought “how much damage could he really do?” and “maybe this will wake people up and they will finally support more progressive candidates.” We obviously found out on both counts. You never assume a jackass will lose. You never assume a jackass can’t cause immense damage. You never allow a jackass to go any further once he or she has shown themselves to be a jackass.
Ron DeSantis is a jackass. Boil it down and diffuse the vestiges of ideology and he’s just a jackass. Whether one buys into woke or not or even wants to engage in any kind of conversation of what that even is, DeSantis just seems intent on punishing people. He is actively making lives in Florida worse and the purpose seems lost on most people. At any rate, the more and more people hear about him the more and more they are turned off.
This is not about ideology anymore. We need people in government that aren’t jackasses. Maybe there should be a Hippocratic Oath for politicians. Whether you buy into anything you should first do no harm. Maybe there are enough sane people in the universe to expel the jackasses from our midst. Obviously, there are still a number of people that our jackasses. Hopefully, these poll numbers might be a sign that there are more of us than there are of them.
Asked about running for VP on the Trump ticket, “I don’t think so. I’m not a No. 2 guy,” Republican presidential candidate DeSantis, who is currently about 30 percentage points behind front-runner Trump in the polls, said.
I disagree.
DeSantis, you are the epitome of a big stinking pile of number two.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ron-desantis-donald-trump-running-mate-question_n_64ae4423e4b07252cc14f3de
1Often it’s the least worst candidate that wins a general. In 2020, people knew they couldn’t stand another four years of Trump and were ready for even a turnip over him. Luckily we got Biden, who came with a brain and morals. In 2016, I can’t tell you the number of women I knew who voted against Hillary because she didn’t divorce Bill after he screwed around. Hopefully in 2024, people can go back to voting for a candidate and not against another.
2‘there was another thought that permeated through some circles on the left. Some people thought “how much damage could he really do?” ‘
I want to point out that this was a feeling by some on the right also. In the 1930s, the Junkers in Germany felt this about the guy with the funny little mustache.
3Numbers don’t lie.. But a lot of lairs are good Using numbers.
4pres and v p can’t be from the same state.
5Chaney changed his voter registration to Wyoming.
Would trump change his to another red state? I doubt it.
The grand old party again has such a dilemma- which human misfit is the most unfit. The question is, does leading in the polls mean you’re more unfit or less?
6Is this a new rule Linda? It’s not in the constitution. Hell, most of the early presidents and vice presidents were from Virginia. I know it’s not a good idea because you want to broaden your appeal with your running mate but I can’t think of any logical reason why this would be an actual rule.
7https://www.history.com/news/can-the-president-and-vice-president-be-from-the-same-state
8For a long time the received wisdom was that the two nominees had to come from different regions. Then in 1992 two southerners (Clinton/Gore) were elected. Now I don’t know what the rules are.
9I honestly do not trust polls at all anymore. I am not sure if they are bias because of question phrasing, sampling glitches, and/or people do not answer truthfully about what they actually believe. They were way off when Obama ran for his second term, off when Hilary was running, and full of garage about which party would win congress during the last midterm election. I do realize that Fox was the one prompting “the red wave” for the last midterm election; but there were a number of polls showing the same thing. A good portion of Americans don’t seem to be in their right minds these days otherwise why would anyone elect DeSantis or Abbott for that matter to a second term as governor. So even though the numbers are low for DeSantis, I just don’t trust them as a deciding factor against him. Far from it!
10Garage = garbage.
11OK, off topic but sort of fits with Nick’s statement “We need people in government that aren’t jackasses.” Something tells me one Texas son named Troy Nehls fits the jackass designation.
12https://www.rawstory.com/troy-nehls-ray-epps/
I understand why Republicans can spot that DeSantis is a jackass. My question is, why can’t they see Trump is an even bigger jackass?
13From the tips of your typing fingers to the eyes of Ceiling Cat, Mr. Carraway. No, our government does not need any more jackasses!
14Fair point SD. I think the point is still well taken. We have to take jackasses seriously as long as we have numerous examples of them being elected at all levels of government.
15Nick @ 15 – I agree that we need to take jackasses running or elected to government very seriously. My concern is the ungodly disconnect of the American voter when voting for these jerks. Trump polled in the low numbers during his entire presidency. Yet he picked up more votes the second time he ran than he did his first time around despite the poll numbers. Then there is Biden who has passed legislation or done executive orders to help students with loans and to help parents with kids by passing the child credit legislation. He also helped to get infrastructure bill through congress and then signed it. He also pushed for and then signed bills to distribute COVID money to help individuals and families during the pandemic – sorry, have to quit there because that is best I can do off the top of my head. Yet he is polling in the low numbers more often than not. As you can tell I have real issues with the American voter who would rather sit out an election or elected a jackass who is bent on destruction and revenge than someone who actually wants to help them. When did it come to pass that Democrats have to perfect to be elected whereas Republicans who are either cowards when it comes to standing up for democracy or jackasses wanting to prosecute certain groups or are seeking revenge of some sort or possess any other number of unsavory characteristics just have to show up to be elected? The mindset of the American voter is definitely very troubling as far I am concern. I would not put it pass them to vote DeSantis into office despite his jerkiness.
16It’s a combination of things. Conservatives have done a good job at the long game. Democrats are always focused on doing stuff. Republicans simply focus on putting in place the things they need to put their thumb on the scale. Gerrymandering, oppressive voter ID laws, limits on absentee voting are all designed to mitigate the disadvantage they have in who would actually support them. They win when turnout is low.
Democrats are focused on facts and actually helping people. People prefer their policy ideas by a significant margin. Their voters are immune to facts and typically what we’d call low information voters. So it’s culture wars and cruelty.
17Truth is, nothing makes sense anymore. It’s really beyond analysis. Jackasses, the worse the better for repugnanticans, get elected and thrive in much of the media. Most media is afraid to call jackasses out.
18Nick, speaking of long term, what mcturtle did with judiciary appointments, including the Supremes, was repugnantly, traitorously effective. And come to think of it in the grand scheme of things not really that long term.
And as consequential as that’s been, what’s of more immediate concern to me is what tuberville’s doing.
I imagine somebody’s pointed it out already, but IMHO the excuse about abortion with regards to approval of the highest ranking members of the military is a twofer for repugnantcans. On the one hand it’s red meat for the maga base. But the real goal is the same one mcturtle had with the judiciary.
Block em all, as many as possible until they can pick who they want.
Is there anybody reading this that think the generals and admirals repugnantcans want wouldn’t look a lot like Michael “suspend the Constitution” Flynn?
Unless I’m wrong, the number’s up to around 200.
19Now just imagine if 200 flag officers in the United States Military had been like flynn or at least sympathetic to those who are.
On Jan. 6th.
Would we still live in a Constitutional democracy?
Nick, all the issues you mentioned plus PP’s McConnell’s Supreme Court comments are without a doubt concerns. However, that still harks back to the mindset of the American voters who let all of this happen in the first place and didn’t do anything to change these issues when they are pointed out to them. Jordan Keppler on one of his ventures into MAGA country had a “discussion” with a woman who was claiming the weaponization of the federal government against DJT. Her response to him after he clearly pointed out to her that DJT’s criminal issues and charges were not coming from the DOJ but from NY and Georgia, both of which have very strong cases against him, was “I don’t care.”
20Another prime example of this mindset is re-electing Abbott. When that winter storm hit Texas, costing the state 200 plus lives because people lost heat and which later created in some cases astronomical gas bills for customers, Abbott tried at first to blame green energy – the very thing that was actually working at the time – and then switched gears to pass a lousy bill that did nothing. Effects of that storm cut across all party lines. Yet that did not cost him the election.
Nor did Uvalde. Supposedly the affected Uvalde families and others in the area were trying to have gun issues addressed by Abbott’s administration who basically ignored them. Yet the majority of the county still voted for Abbott.
Like I said for me, the issue is the mindset of the voters who apparently like to get kicked in the teeth by one party and bite the hand of the other party that is trying to help them with healthcare, child care, infrastructure, and gun control issues – just to name a few. Admittedly republicans have played the long game. But even when confronted with the consequences of that long game, voters continue to vote for the very thing that has the potential to or will destroy them.
I do hold out hope that Dobbs will PERSONALLY affect enough voters to help change this mindset in 2024 because I am not sure enough other issues will. However, I am not discounting the fact that we could continue on our current, scary path or have a very close call in changing paths.
Politics and demographics work in small chunks. No matter how much stupid crap those guys do, they will have 20-25 percent of hardline support because those people are jackasses themselves or what some would call jackass adjacent. Then there’s another 20 percent that vote GOP even though they are decent people. That’s a minimum of 40-45 percent. The long game hasn’t turned the tide a ton. It eats away five to ten percent. That’s five to ten percent that don’t vote because it’s too difficult. Almost all are our voters. They know this and openly brag about it. Add in gerrymandering and it isn’t so much the stupidity of the voters (which I agree they are) but that they have literally chosen who votes. My only thought is you focus on those same small chunks. For most of their voters the cruelty is a feature and not a bug. They care more that the people they hate are hurt then that they are too. Focusing on them is a waste of time. You focus on that five to ten percent. You study demographics to identify them. You test out messages until you find one that resonates. The difficulty here is that people’s identities are wrapped up in these assclowns. You call out their guy and then you call out them. That’s how they see it.
21In truth I should actually let this discussion go but just can’t without making one more comment. IMHO, I don’t think winning 5% to 10% extra voters to squeak in Democrats is going to turn the tide so to speak. Since the beginning of this century – and perhaps toward the end of the last century as well – ,the general voting pattern that I see in politics is that the Republicans win Congress and the Presidency and start chipping away at any legislation, acts, or whatever was passed by the Democrats that even hints at helping just about everyone. Also they do their best to install people in the court system and the federal agencies to continue this after they are out of power. And then more times than not they bring on a recession/depression. The voters then put the Democrats back in to “rescue” the economy, all the while wanting it done in a ridiculous short amount time which so far they have managed to do. Then the Ds enact policies like the Affordable Care Act and infrastructure bill, get vilified for trying to help people, and are voted out. The cycle then starts all over again. Except for this time around the Republicans, thanks to packing the Supreme Court and having control of the governorship and legislatures in some states, are finally doing some real damage with book bans, abortion bans, eroding LBTQ rights, and attacking CRT.
22Also this time around, we get cruel and/or stupid representatives like Cruz, Boebert, Greene, Gaetz, and Tuberville, some who are so stupid that they consider their ability to find their own ass an accomplishment. Some of these jerks have way too much power.
If this is going to stop, I honestly believe that it will take more than an extra 5% to 10% of the voters voting with Ds. We need at least 20% or more these “outside” voters who join the Ds in speaking loudly and clearly with their choice of candidates who clearly support reversing these attacks and these voters need to give these candidates a number of election wins to ensure these attacks do not reoccur. However, I don’t think voters will actually do that unless some Republican issue of attack impacts them greatly. As mentioned, I am hoping that Dobbs is that issue.
Also, McConnell is clearly a jackass. However, he could not have orchestrated the Supreme Court packing without the help of his fellow jackass Republicans. One jackass alone can’t do too much damage but a herd certainly can. Plus I am really disappointed that Obama and the rest of Ds did not push back hard when McConnell and company stopped Garland’s nomination. They should have took McConnell and the rest of the Rs to court…or at least tried.