Life By The Numbers
People that know me well know I love baseball statistics. I’ve even written about them once or twice before. Even though analytics have made their way into football and basketball, there is a special love between the analytically minded and baseball. It’s a more one on one sport, so it lends itself to that sort of thing. Like anything else, there has been a backlash to analytics from people we might classify as “get off my lawn” guy.
I’m not going to bore you with statistics like weighted on base average or hard contact rates or anything like that. Yet, there is a divide like that in society. At this point, many of the anti-vaxxers are jumping on the statistic that those that get COVID have at least a 97 percent survival rate. So, why sweat it?
Not coincidentally, these are the same folks that feel they need to carry a gun everywhere to keep themselves safe. This comes despite all of the available evidence to the contrary. The evidence is overwhelming. Guns are more often used or misused in the home for assaults, murders, and suicides than they are to thwart would be assailants. Yet, when you live outside the numbers you are free to believe anything I suppose.
The best analogy I have heard as it pertains to COVID is to imagine a bowl of M&Ms. We can even split the difference to make things easier. There are 100 of them in a bowl. Two of them will kill you. Sure, the odds are forever in your favor if you decide to eat one. Those of you adept at the math could calculate the odds if you choose to eat a handful. Everyone can calculate the odds if you choose to eat zero.
That’s really the whole point here. Dying at the hands of a rogue M&M is an unforced outcome. If you get vaccinated, wear a mask, and practice social distancing your death rate drops to nearly zero. It is almost like declining to eat any of the M&Ms. You know the outcome.
Yet, millions have chosen to eat the M&Ms anyway. Unwittingly, they’ve chosen to eat multiple M&Ms without even knowing it. They obviously don’t know how numbers work. If the death rate is one to three percent for everyone then that number includes vaccinated and unvaccinated Americans. The death rate for vaccinated Americans is practically zero even if they contract COVID. Therefore, logic would clearly dictate that the odds jump for unvaccinated Americans.
I’m not an expert on health related statistics and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I can harbor a guess that if roughly half of the population is vaccinated then unvaccinated people might see their odds roughly double. So, one to three percent becomes two to six percent (or some similar number).
Overlooking some of these obvious facts is par for the course. They do the same thing with their guns and likely do the same thing with their health in other areas. We even see combinations that would be comical if they weren’t so tragic. Let’s combine alcohol and guns just to see the multiplication effect. The actuary tables on these Americans has to be entertaining for people who are into that sort of thing.
As much as I enjoy baseball statistics, I don’t make it a habit to delve into these. No one is hurt when a hitter strikes out or a pitcher is pulled from the game. All these numbers do is describe pain and suffering. Every note on a page describes someone’s tragedy and it is impossible to derive any enjoyment from that. However, a basic understanding is helpful. As the computer in War Games said, “the only winning move is not to play.”
The following calculation has nothing to do with Covid, but regarding the bowl of M&Ms, you’ve got a 50% chance of dying before you’ve eaten 30 M&Ms.
1This reminded me of Jared Kushner’s tweet during the 2016 presidential campaign: “If I had a bowl of skittles and I told you just three would kill you. Would you take a handful? That’s our Syrian refugee problem.”
2I’m not a lawyer either, but I do have a nephew who’s a doc at Texas Children’s and if you knew how angry those medical folk are at anti-vaxers you would think twice about admitting you haven’t been vaccinated as you seek COVID treatment. People need surgery, surgeons want to do it, but hospitals are too overwhelmed to take a chance on another ICU bed that might be needed for a COVID patient. Docs, nurses, et al, don’t want to take any stray viruses home to their families. I could go on, but you get it!
3@Grandma Ada
4My niece is an ICU RN and she’s ready to use a Clue By Four on the idiots.
She’s pretty tired of working 16 hour shifts.
I agree with her on whomping them with a reality stick.
A lady at self-defence class said she does not need lessons as she carries a gun. At which point I smiled, pulled my demo (i.e. toy) gun from my holster and said BANG!!! So much for the gun in your purse!!!
5Grandma Ada @3 and Mike @5, within the constraints of the Hippocratic Oath that requires patients be treated what about the rights of hospital staff and other patients not to be unnecessarily exposed to a deadly disease for which *if only* the O.D.D. stubborn would get vaccinated? We’ve seen the gamut of requirements from our health care professionals ranging from the strict requirements: proof of vaccination, mask and negative covid tests within the last 72 hours to merely wearing a mask and a temperature scan.
L.Long @ 5, she has a sister. Worked almost one summer as casino security, when a cocktail waitress descending the same stairs I was ascending dropped her purse discharging the gun her boyfriend had placed there for “safe” keeping. She had “forgotten” she had it. That was my last day; decided caddying for old duffers armed merely with clubs would be safer.
6Ok here’s my “forgot my gun” story: my cousin, age around 60 at the time, is always practicing good & cautious gun safety, I’m told. Except the one morning when he was getting dressed for work, and reached for his jeans that were up on a shelf. The jeans he forgot he left his gun in. Gun fell out, hit the floor, and shot him in the leg. Luckily his daughter was home & heard the shot, otherwise he might’ve bled out on the closet floor. He seems fine now but doesn’t like to talk about this little lapse, so don’t mention it if you see him. I’m quite certain he doesn’t read Juanita Jean so I think I’m safe, don’t want to cause disharmony in the family.
7Good piece Nick.
8John Pavlovitz’s latest deals with this on a whole different level.
https://johnpavlovitz.com/
Maybe only 3% of those infected die from COVID. I’m not sure about the exact figure. But I am sure of this:
If you die from it, you are 100% dead.
9An editorial in the Oregonian this morning caught my attention about people using covid statistics in the opposite of a logical way. The subject wasn’t about vaccinations but about ending mask mandates. The logic expressed was that because Oregon’s infection rates have been lower than many other states and dropping, mask mandates should end. I would think most people would see the cause and effect correlation between the mitigation efforts, including mask mandates, and the lower rate. I guess logic is lost on some people. Also, several counties in Oregon have not had lower infection rates and there are obvious and common characteristics in those counties. Lower vaccination rates and refusals to enforce mask mandates (including by County Sheriff departments) stand out. Same as in many red states.
10Seems the best solution is to leave the idiots to die.
11They’re mostly bad uninformed voters anyway…
I don’t think you gave your case a fair hearing, Three percent death isn’t full-freight for negative outcomes. How many lose time at work:
How many lose time at work and are isolated in a hospital. Can you afford to lose two weeks pay? And that is a mild case.
Lets say you have a not so mild case. Prone in a hospital is rough on the body. Loss of muscle mass alone is quite an adjustment. Physical jobs and recreation might not be an option for months or years. Then there is the possibility of clots; strokes and mental changes that are not uncommon. There is even an off-chance they might have to lop off a leg … or two.
But wait, there is more. Pneumonia and loss of oxygen flow makes amputation more likely. It stresses out the heart and kidneys. You say your heart and kidneys are fine, strong … not any more. Even if you live you can face these issues for the rest of your life. You used to be athletic. You may improve but much of the damage is often permanent.
Then, of course, we get to, how people think of COVID type illness. Pneumonia and destruction of lung tissue. That can lead to any or all of the previous bad events.
No, death is not the only negative event. Thinking it is an all-or-nothing thing where you either live free and happy, or die oversimplifies things. You might live but require a kidney or liver transplant. You could survive COVID and die waiting for a transplant organ. It has happened.
I don’t know what the chances are but if dying is 3% then the other bad outcomes have to be, collectively, several times that.
I think there is one thing the administration can do to persuade people to get vaccinated:
Stop covering the medical treatment through Medicare and Medicaid for uninsured people who haven’t been vaccinated. Combine this with an announcement to the insurance companies that they can raise rates or demand a special rider for uninsured people to cover the extra expenses of treating the unvaccinated.
People start having to pay for their own stupidity they will make wiser, and more financially sound, choices.
12Art, good points. Early last year when covid hospitalizations were causing hospitals to send non-covid patients home from ERs, people died as a result but weren’t counted. That happened to my brother in-law. That same scenario has happened since the delta variant swamped hospitals. So yes, the 3% understates the true death rate.
13Art @12, bravo on and for all points! Would add all the people who have had procedures delayed while the antivaxxer maskholes take up space they do not deserve. While we cannot begin to calculate the toll on the medical professionals who deserved to see “the light at the end of the tunnel,” after the Biden administration placed all hands on deck to accelerate the vaccine delivery to everyone. Heckuva thank you to the people saving your sorry butts, antivaxxers.
14Ormond, that reminds me of something awhile back.
15Someone brought up Napoleon’s quote about never interrupting your enemy when he’s making a mistake.
In the context of denying care for anti-vaxers if it meant allowing vaxed to be taken care of.
I agree 100% with triaging those of us who care over those who’s principles were paramount until they couldn’t breathe.
Fuck em.
Sorry mamma.
Funny thing about that quote though.
IMHO.
What I just agreed with 100% is very specific.
Vaccines been out better part of a year.
At what point did those folks become my enemies?
That would be useful information to have going forward, so I can determine whether folks I meet deserve to live or die.
Great points everyone. The snag in all of this is the math. We are using numbers and percentages and logic on a portion of our population that still thinks that 7 million is greater than 8 million.
I have a suggestion. Before any candidate can throw their hat in the ring they have to take this test. 7 or 8, which number is larger? Mask or gun? Vaccine or death? Inflation or recession? Boxers or briefs? I just threw that last one in for my own amusement. M&Ms or Skittles? Ok, I’ll stop but you get what I’m saying.
16Why sweat it? What a strange question! Some reasons to get the vaccine: you could end up sweating it in an ICU in real pain like you have never experienced before, and if you do survive you could also end up with a lifetime souvenir of your experience that will make you damn sorry. And then there are those hospital bills that you thought your health insurance would cover that force you to sell your house in order to pay off. You could also end up alive but disabled to the point where you need round the clock care in a nursing home somewhere they have a full staff to care for you. And all of this would take more luck than most humans ever have even if they have multiple lifetimes. Worse yet, you end up mentally kicking your butt for being just so damn stupid!
17Tremendous points Art. You are right, I did short-change that side of the argument. It isn’t even so much that I didn’t think of it, but that I didn’t know if spending on the time on such nuance was even beneficial. As some have correctly pointed out, I do tend to get long-winded. I was afraid that amongst the vaccinated, such talk would be ridiculously obvious and among the unvaccinated it would be too intricate to grasp.
18Nick, say what you will, but you may have struck upon the “rallying cry” going into 2022. To the tune of Give Peace a Chance: Give TRUTH a Chance.
Never back off the facts, and while we’d never suggest you take Ivermectin, a healthy dose of shortening at the keyboard, yeah. Peace out!
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