Numeric Trends
Written by Nick Carraway.
In my current job I work with a lot of numbers. It could be kids’ test scores on STAAR, IQ tests, or achievement tests. I look at grades so often i usually get dizzy. So, you’ll forgive me if I like to look at numbers away from work as well.
I certainly have found it interesting that the last two votes in the Senate (on the constitutionality of impeaching the ex-president) had the exact same results as this CBS poll. So, the Senate voted 56-44 and the people currently support impeachment 56-44.
You rarely see that kind of alignment. Most of us don’t see the Senate voting differently when this whole shindig is over. What might change is that number from the overall population. We noticed it last time when the people heard the evidence from the first impeachment trial. It won’t be a ton of movement, but no one really expects it to be.
In terms of data and statistics, a swing of even a few points is a huge deal. It could be the difference between breaking even in House races in 2022 and gaining maybe ten seats. Think of the difference between a four point Biden win and a seven point Biden win. It’s a huge difference even if it looks small in the moment. If you can shift that 56 number to 60 then you’ve made some serious headway. That’s true even if the Senate turns in the same 56-44 vote they have the last two times.”
Nick
Not sure the overall mood of the country matters as much to savvy Republican Senators as the mood of the median Republican voter. Per my comment on the previous post, I think the Republican Senators are seeking the line between seeing Trump as a Fighter, which the R voter really approves of, and seeing the Capitol Assault as an attempt at changing our form of government, which R voters don’t seem to want. If the Impeachment Managers want to drag Republican Senators to their side, they need to deemphasize punishing Trump the fighter, and play up the need to preserve our current form of government. This impeachment is Congress defending itself, by Constitutional means.
1The poll I saw over the weekend shows 87% of repugnantican voters still support Trumpf, or in other words, oppose impeachment. Four years of the worst president in history and a completely botched pandemic response has not swayed most repugnantican voters. Not even an attempt to subvert democracy changed their minds. It’s the “he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue” and his supporters wouldn’t care effect. That’s what repugnanticans in congress see, period. They are all constantly running for office and are not about to go against those numbers. I think privately a large number of those repugnantican congresspeople find Trumpf repulsive, but they have lost their moral compass when it comes to their actions. Power at any cost and I find that repulsive.
2this stars, Nick! Its in the stars! They do kinda align every now and then!
3There is an effort under way by current Republicans to create a new party of center right conservatives or at least a new caucus within the Republican party. That could be all it takes to prevent another Republican from ever being elected president again, as well as affecting down ticket races. I’m all for them shooting at each other, er, I mean self correcting.
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