Before we get on to what to watch for tonight, there’s an interesting little experiment going on over at Slate with a group called VoteCastr, who are updating estimated status of the races INTRADAY!

Starting with the lists of people who cast votes early, VoteCastr is applying the microtargeting techniques used in modern political campaigns (well, not so much with der Drumpf, danke Gott) to estimate what the current state of the race is. Estimating the race in a state by party affiliation alone is kind of like estimating ethnicity based on hair and skin color – it works a lot in the middle of the bell curve, but not so much close to the edges.

We are very close to the edge of the bell curve, here, because of Trump’s historically bad campaign. As we saw, this makes betting on party affiliation as dispositive a fool’s errand. Furthermore, we cannot make any estimates based on non-affiliated voters. VoteCastr tries to predict the choice of any individual person who has voted.

Take VoteCastr with a very bigly grain of salt.  I don’t know how well it’s going to work, but I’m going to be refreshing it all day. If accurate, it could change election day reporting. Maybe not for the better.

As for tonight, pay attention as polls close to what the characterizations are. Early calls in early voting states are significant of trends. “Too early to call” but characterized Clinton are good. “Too early to call” where we expect success are worrying, especially if they flip to “too close to call.” A lot of “too close to call” means a long night.

There are 3 states that will tell you early on how the night is going to go:

Florida: They had 50% early turnout in Florida, with only another 20-30% expected today. At 7 PM most of Florida’s polls will close and those early numbers will be posted. If Hillary is ahead bigly – as we suspect she may be – then it’s all over but the shouting. If Rubio is down bigly, it’s going to be a Huuuge Night for Dems. But Florida won’t be called until the panhandle closes.

North Carolina: NC could be called early, and if it is it will be for Clinton. A long-lasting “too close to call” here means that Comey’s letter had as deep an effect as could be feared, short of flipping the election. NC had a drop off in black early voting, which could be deemed a lack of enthusiasm but is probably more related to the voter suppression on early voting. How the AfAm vote turns out today everywhere is KEY up and down the ticket and NC would be a pre-cursor to Rust Belt races. An early Clinton call would be Huuuuge.

New Hampshire: After the craziness of the polls this past week, THIS is the place where we see what it all means. A quick Hillary-Maggie win there and it’s Katy-bar-the-Huuuge-door. A Trump win and it’s a looong night and maybe a loooonger 4 years with a GOP Congress. To me, all-white NH is the key indicator as to the turn-out power of the campaigns, the actual enthusiasm of the Trump voter, the power of the women’s vote and the coat tails of both campaigns among whites across the US.

Other states to watch to gauge trends:

Eastern Time Zone: MI, PA, GA for strength of minority GOTV. OH for ticket splitting.

Central Time Zone: When the polls close and early characterizations are made from MN to TX, we will know how Huuge a win Hillary will have. Watch Indiana and Iowa, states where Trump AND the GOP are anticipated to do well but may instead show the strength of the Democratic ticket. Senate wins in these states are not expected, but still possible. How the Heartland votes tonight will determine the course of the US, maybe for decades.

Mountain Time Zone: Should be over by the time we reach 10 PM, Real Standard Time, but if not, Arizona is the place to watch. Utah will really be fun, too, because thanks to the third party, the fourth party and the McMullin Party of One, this may be more of a Donner Party than a Donnie Party for Republicans.

Points West: No trends to watch here, just the final call if it’s been a slow night for Hillary to this point. Blue Pacific, Blue Hawaii and I may go to bed before we find out what Alaska does, but it will be interestingly anti-climactic, I’m sure.

Bottom line for tonight:

Don’t panic!  It’s not a question of if she wins, it’s a question of if she wins HUUUUGE!  Try to stay relaxed, rested and reasonably sober, and don’t forget to stretch before going into your victory dance.