I have alluded to this many times over the years, but I need to come right out and confess, because it’s important as setup. I used to be a RINO – a Republican In Name Only – because I was a young man in a hurry, and the GOP was the only game in town.

In Illinois, my State Rep was the IL House GOP Leader (sometimes, Speaker). My GOP State Senator was President of the Senate. My Congressman was Henry Hyde – yes, THAT Henry Hyde. Most of my local allies were Republican (we had other parties within our city elections that did not align with the Dems or GOP) and the local Democrats were a Gang of Eight septuagenarians who sat around polishing their “McGovernment” buttons and wringing their hands.

It really was a thing.

I was a young man. In a hurry. So once I had won local office and was hungry for more, I made bad choices. Regardless of other regrets, one positive outcome from my ambitious weakness was that almost everything I know about winning elections comes from being a very attentive cog in the DuPage County Republican Machine.

One fine summer day in 2004, it was my duty to babysit an aging, ailing Henry Hyde at our annual County GOP golf fundraiser.  He was a nice guy, a man of honor, sometimes misplaced, sometimes misused, but oh! did he get a twinkle in his eyes around the young ladies. They, and many older ones, fawned over Henry in his wheelchair like a favored grandfather at a summer picnic. He was harmless, now: twinkle was all he could do anymore.

Later in the afternoon, after Henry had gone home, the honored guest/keynote speaker arrived – Alan Keyes (R – Carpetbag) who moved from Maryland to Calumet City to run in the US Senate Race against a skinny black kid with big ears and a funny name. Keyes is a Conservative nutjob, a true-believer in everything that is wrong about the Right. He worked the outdoor crowd in a grey suit (no tie) and gym shoes, almost disappearing from view at times, not because he was mobbed, but because he is tiny.

I parked myself under the overhang of a refreshment stand on a small hill. Not only was I closer to the beer there, I also had a very good panoramic view of a few hundred folding chairs in front of the small trailer/stage set up for his speech. Slowly the seats filled up with an entire generation of white-flight suburbanites, ready to be wowed by the Conservative firebrand with the right skin color to maybe take the Senate fight to Brock O’Whozits. Lighting a cigar, I leaned against the wall to watch the speech.

Like so many other God-smacked true-believers, Keyes absolutely loses his shit over a woman’s right to control her own body. After doing a stanza on his biography and a stanza on the race, Keyes started in on abortion, with inconsiderate sideswipes at the whole concept of women’s issues. He was hardly three sentences into that, however, when it happened: a woman about three quarters of the way back got up and left.

Then another. And another. And another one. Then several at a time. All women. All Republicans. All getting up and leaving in silent protest. By the time the speech was over, half the women in the audience had drifted away. I already knew Barack Obama would win the Senate seat. That fine summer day, I learned Obama would win big. He did, by the biggest margin in Illinois history.

Now four days before Election Day, twelve years later, as President Obama is finishing his second term, I also know that Hillary Clinton will win big to succeed him in the White House. When did I learn that?

One fine summer day. In 2004.