What’s on Tonight
Democrats tonight are voting in Michigan (130 pledged delegates) and Mississippi (36). Right now, the only path Bernie has to the nomination is to win the pledged delegate count and then convince enough unpledged (super) delegates to change their vote so as not to thwart the will of the people. But first, he MUST demonstrate that nominating Bernie Sanders is indeed the will of the people.
It’s a tall ask. He managed to win a few small caucuses over the weekend, but like Hillary in ’08, where every winning day saw her fall further and further behind in delegates, he lost Louisiana by enough that he lost the weekend. Today should be even worse. Hillary has large leads in the polls, and even if we assign all the undecideds to Bernie, Hillary’s lead will increase by 35 or so delegates.
With the concomitant 166 decrease in pledged delegates available, Bernie is running out of runway. He needs to get this campaign off the ground, but he’s had weeks to do that and he hasn’t accomplished it yet. After we have tonight’s results, we can talk about his path forward. But if he doesn’t shake things up tonight, there won’t be a lot of tomorrows left for him
On the GOP side, OMG. Trump still maintains his lead, despite the Cruz surge over the weekend. Rubio is on his way out, apparently: he will meet his destiny next week in Florida, where he never dreamed that all the bridges he’s ever burnt there would also torch his campaign.
Tonight, they have a caucus in Hawaii and a primary in Idaho, both closed, which favors non-Trumps, for 51 total delegates. In Michigan and Mississippi, there are 99 delegates at stake. That’s a pretty big haul, 12% of the winning total. They are all being assigned proportionally, and Trump leads in recent polls, mostly.
But it’s hard to quantify yet how much being vetted – FINALLY – by the GOP, the other candidates and the media is blunting his momentum. Trump finds himself very much in the same position as Hillary: a large lead with diminishing runway for his opponents. But he’s still a “front-runner” who has yet to score over 50% in even one contest.
That having been said, Cruz has not gotten the memo about a brokered convention, and is campaigning as if he’s going to win every state, which is putting Kasich in Michigan at risk to blunt Trump, and is really hurting Rubio in Florida next week, the first winner-take-all primary, and I do mean, all.
The only big play to watch for tonight is a Michigan win for Kasich. Trump could lose Idaho, also. But unless Trump goes 0-for-4, then the only game changer left is Florida, next week.
~Primo
Primo, has Loathsome Ted struck some evil pact with Donnie Drumpf? No one would expect that selfish Dominionist pervangelist to be a team player, but he seems posed to ruin chances for ALEC Ksuchasheis to stop Drumpf in MI and OH, while raining on any chance RU BO has to stop Drumpf in FL.
A Drumpf/Crooze ticket? Please tell me that the American electorate isn’t that st00pid. After 8 years of Dubya, my confidence in the voting public is not riding high.
1Just a note to mention that Bernie is doing well despite a news blackout throughout the “main-stream media” and active hostility from the Democratic Party management. If he does not win because of these maneuvers by our corrupt movers and shakers, the Democratic Party will probably join the Republican Party in terminal decline. It is already sliding. Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorability ratings of any candidate, yet the panjandrums of the Party continue to push for her coronation. Young and old Democrats are leaving the Party in droves. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is so obvious in her manipulation and favoritism that even people like me who haven’t paid attention to inner Party machinations are angry.
The country is on the cusp of political upheaval and perhaps chaos. I’ve been active in politics since the Goldwater campaign and I’ve never seen such corruption and open manipulation by Democrats let alone the insanity and stupidity of the Republicans. These are truly scary times: the Democratic Party is turning into a clone of the old Republican Party thanks to the Clintons and the Republicans are becoming a modern Fascist Party. The two party system is broken.
2Primo, could you please comment on this opinion: all I read via internet – have no tv – about this big hullabaloo by media and dem elites and wanna be’s declaring the end of their world if trump wins prez. Am I missing something; ie, imo, cruz is far more dangerous as a michaelvelian (sorry about spelling) machine basically amoral regarding methodology to achieve his goal of top power. While trump says outlandish things being the money independent carnie he is, is he really more dangerous than cruz as prez?
3Love little bernie, nice guy, not so much his people. they bought the rights lies, Hillary has raised many dollars to support dems running for office.We need more dems. we need Hillary.
4van59: I appreciate your concern but I can’t help feeling that comparing the pluses and minuses of Trump vs Cruz is akin to comparing bull urine to cow urine. Is there really a difference worth noting?
5What is with those two Cubans in the campaign? Both of them had family that came over by boat from the island and without visas. You would think they would have some good feelings for others in much the same predicament, especially from below the border. But, no! They got here and they got theirs! To hell with everyone else.
6JAK, on the surface I agree in principle. If both are equivalent, why is trump bearing the hog’s share of vilification? Is it for showmanship skills vs what each could be counted upon doing once in power? Discounting the easily misled, what do the real thinkers, the knowers of this game, think; ie, another metaphor for the yellow brick road, whose controlling the curtain? However, I think the question remains: who’s the more dangerous one as prez and why.
7We used to live in Texas. Ted Cruz is very scary and if I had voted in the Rep. primary (never have) I would have held my nose and voted for Dewhurst. He does know the word compromise.
8I have been a political junkie and fairly active since I worked for McCarthy in 1968. We will participate in the caucus for Bernie later this month ( in Idaho!) and are finding more and more people in this let-us-be-as-crazy-as-Texas state who are for Bernie. He is saying what needs to be said. Hillary will continue to be part of the problem, but we are at the “who is the least dangerous for our future?” stage so we may hold our noses and vote for her in November. (Not that it will make a difference in Idaho.)
@van59, my spouse is with you all the way. Says Trump is a bully and a blowhard, but mostly sound and fury. Cruz otoh is a true blue believing seven-pillars dominionist, brought up by his fond father to think he has a most important role in the Apocolypse that will bring on the Triumph of the Lamb or some such nonsense. But the damage he could do to our nation is frightening to contemplate…
9low voter turnout, little d, high negative #s, walmart, wallstreet Bill Clinton. reason i give to Bern, probably not vote in president election.
10Secretary Clinton, as a former Senator and Obama Cabinet member, has a track record of sound, committed service to this country. As First Lady, she tried to get the ball rolling on health insurance and was prevented by, of all people, Republicans. Her knowledge of the global political leaders, diplomatic skills and appreciation of women’s issues qualify her to break the ultimate glass ceiling, The Presidency. Don’t forget, our President has a noticeable unfavorability rating as well, but has succeeded in spite of it. Superficial objections to her candidacy do not hold water.
11I’d like to address that in a column, van59. Keep an eye out today or tomorrow.
Great question! And the answer involves Dungeons & Dragons and Nietzsche, oh my!
12Primo, are you talking about that guy who finally found his Niche in life?:)
13Drum roll!
Latest knock on Donnie Drumpf is his qualifying for a $300 property tax rebate for those in NY making less than $500,000/year. Meh. That only shows the income he claims. The question is how good his accountants and tax people are at hiding his money. His IRS audit should be fun.
Top reason to exclude Drumpf as a serious presidential contender is his promise to include the Arctic Maenad in a Drumpf administration. (h/t Samantha Bee for Arctic Maenad)
Loathsome Crooze is out to any sane person. We do not need a “leader” to take us into the rapture. There are cults for that sort of thing, if anyone is interested. Maybe little Teddie can open a kool-aid stand at one of his daddy’s temples.
14Frank, I think I read it here at the beauty shop, if you don’t vote for the lessor of two evils then the worst of the two evils wins.
15Any democrat is better than any republican
Hillary won Mississippi. Oh, and Drumpf too.
16Oops. Drumpf is leading, but it’s too close to call at 7:05 CST.
17It’s official now, according to MSNBC. Drumpf in Miss.
18caren burke says:
March 8, 2016 at 2:01 pm
Love little bernie, nice guy, not so much his people. they bought the rights lies, Hillary has raised many dollars to support dems running for office.We need more dems. we need Hillary.
Bernie is and has been a major fundraiser for the Democratic Party for many, many years:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/sanders-democratic-fundraisers/
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