Time for our game!
Continuing what I was talking about yesterday, South Carolina is one of the 4 “carve-out” states whose early position has somehow been assured. Unlike the other, proportional, three earlies, the Republican Party is allocating delegates along a mixed winner-taker-all scenario. 29 delegates are awarded outright to the winner of the statewide race while 21 are equally divided among 7 congressional districts. If a candidate finishes with a plurality of votes in a single district, he gets all 3 of their delegates.
What this means is that Donald Trump, with less than a third of the vote, can win 100% of the delegates.
In Nevada, it’s a collection of Democratic Non-binding Precinct Viability Caucuses. Seriously. These are followed by 17 county conventions in April, and a state convention in mid-May, at which point, someone will get some delegates. Turnout is notoriously low, as might be expected if you are electing delegates to a meeting which will elect delegates to a meeting which will elect delegates to a meeting where they and other delegates will select a nominee for President. Iowa votes somewhat along the same line: both have the 15% viability rule, for example. But unlike Iowa, you can’t poach from other groups, and it’s not the first contest in the country where candidates have been camped out for a year. So, yawn?
For the purposes of our game this week, we’re going to keep it simple.
GOP-SC – Predict order and vote percentages of the top 5 finishers.
DEM-NV – Predict the order and percentages of the top 2 finishers.
Tie-breaker – Predict who –if anyone – other than the winner will win any delegates in SC.
~Primo
Okay, I’ll start off, get my usual wrong guesses out of the way. For the Democrats, it’s gonna be tricky, but I’ll go 57% Hillary, 43% Bernie. (That one’s so unpredictable it could go the reverse, but I think this has to be one Hillary needs, and that she’ll work. Bernie’s games with fake union badges may hurt him a little or a lot as well.)
‘
Republicans:
Cruz 35%
Trump 28%
Carson 10%
Bush 9%
Rubio 8%
(And Kasich finishes last, sadly, but this IS SC after all.)
Tie-breaker (wish I knew how the districts were set up better) Trump will get at least 6 and I’ll say Bush squeezes out 3 based on his long history in the state.
Now I hope someone gets it right.
1Prup (aka Jim Benton), welcome to my world! Applying logic to the snacilbupeR follies is a hazard.
T-Rump 30
Crooze 25
Roboto 15
Ksuchasheis 12
Jeb(?) 10
Mental Ben 8
Crooze will pull pull a few delegates from the wingnut counties in NE SC.
In the NV caucus to caucus to caucus it’s nearly a dead heat. I’ll say:
2Senator Sanders 51
Sec/Sen Clinton 49
Oh no, plane geometry again.
3PKM – do you and Mrs. Marxist intend to caucus tomorrow?
4I get gluteal blindness at the very idea of trying to guess how the whackadoodle snacilbupeR voters will vote. So here’s my Dem split,
Bernie 51%
Hillary 49%
Thinnest of edges to Bernie!
5daChipster, we will caucus tomorrow, and if asked, caucus and caucus again as is the process. We will not be disenfranchised by the crazy process.
6I say Hillary 55 vs. Bernie 45. Hillary will probably get all the delegates.
7As for the RKlan, don’t know, don’t care. They’re all doomed.
Are the people of Texas really for Rafael Cruz, or do they have voter’s remorse?
8He seems to be more Christian then the Pope.
And it appears the Pope would be a better politician then Rafael!
Sorry, I meant to say Rafael acts like he is more Christian then the Pope!
9Diane, a whole *lot* of Texans are *not* for Crudz, but we’re so badly gerrymandered that we’re hard to find. The crazy runs deep here.
10The dirty rotten scacilbupeR are threatening to vote in the NV Democratic caucus.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/02/19/nevada-democratic-party-vows-prosecute-republican-commits-voter-fraud.html
No wonder they’re always projecting about voter fraud; it’s what they do.
11Marco pulls off the upset in SC over Trump with the recent endorsement of Nikki Haley and Comets, Senator Tim Scott and Congresscritter Trey Gowdy, who apparently stopped investigating Benghazi long enough to share a bottle of something with Marco. ( Gowdy’s mother must have had the Zika virus from the looks of his head.)
SC Republicans/RWNJ’s-
Rubio 29
Trump 27
Cruz 16
Bush 13 (Mommy helps him with the Quaker Oats crowd)
Kasich 10
Carson 5
Carson will be the only non-winner to receive delegates as there must be one district crazy enough to give him the most votes.
Hilary will win the Nevada caucus over Bernie 51-49.
What do I win?
12SC Other votes in SC: Bush
Trump 27
Bush 25
Rubio 23
Cruz 22
Carson 3
NEV
13Hillary 54
Bernie 46
PKM, it won’t just be in Nevada. They will repeat what they did all over the country in 2008, by having Repugs register as Dems for the primary, vote for Bernie, who they don’t think will win the general due to the socialist label, and then re-register in time for the general election. Except President Obama fooled them all by winning when they thought his being black meant he couldn’t. Hillary lost out then, but hopefully things will be different this time.
14I ain’t guessin’ nuthin except I think we better keep plenty of pizza and beer on hand. And park where guests can’t back into you, esp if you have a black car.
15maryelle, in NV the snacilbupeR will pay a price for their shenanigans. Democrats caucus all day; it’s not a drop a ballot and leave affair. They will be treated to surrogates for Bernie and HRC speaking; for hours. Also, with 3 caucuses moving forward before delegates are awarded, the snacilbupeR would need some extreme numbers to effect the outcome in the least. Plus, it is a felony here and the Democratic Party Chair is a determined woman. Roberta will see to it that they are prosecuted.
16Primo… love your words but I can’t (won’t) participate in the game. This whole process is like watching a loop tape of endless episodes of The Housewives of __________.
Here are my rules from now until November: Democrat – Yes; Republican -No. Simple.
17Bernie 54
18Hillary 46
Trump 35
Cruz 24
RU-B0 20
Kasich14
Bush 11
Cruz will get 3 delegates from up in the piedmont, maybe 6.
Hillary 56
19Bernie 44
My uneducated prediction was for Nevada. South Carolina may see Hillary 75, Bernie 25. Hillary gets most delegates due to the super delegate system.
20Say bye bye to Bush http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/us/politics/jeb-bush.html
21MY prediction for what it’s worth, if Trump loses the election, he will demand a Huuuuuuuuge nationwide recount, and then sue everyone who didn’t vote for him.
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