Polls cannot accurately predict a likely voter. Even more difficult to predict is what a person likely to vote is likely to do. Measuring “enthusiasm” based on self-reporting is even more of an iffy proposition. “Yes, I will vote,” and “Yeah, I guess so,” are two different answers that could mean exactly the same thing.

Donald Trump’s support is enthusiastic among certain types, less so among other types, and predicated on different reasons from person to person. For a protest voter, or an anti-Hillary voter, or even an enthusiastic voter – one prone to march into the polling place every first Tuesday after the first Monday in November in snow and sleet and rain and gloom of night – it’s hard to say which of the myriad sins of Donald Trump is likely to be the last straw.

For Clinton, on the other hand, because she was a well-known political entity who has been thoroughly raked over the coals for much of the last 25 years, there are fewer “surprises.” Even the deplorable Comey letter to his leaky friends is merely a weak attempt at keeping yet another non-scandal soap bubble on life support. It’s not even a NEW non-scandal, but rather a retread.

I’m telling you why

But.

The polls appear to be tightening, along with Democratic pundits’ throats. Especially worrying to some are the early reads on who is voting early. Per this Slate article, Democrats are out-polling Republicans in Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. This is good news in these swing states.

However, Republican early voters outnumber Democrats in Arizona and Florida, the latter  a must-win state for Trump – BIGLY. Polling has tightened there but, again, there’s so much secret sauce in trying to discern not only intent but enthusiasm, that it’s hard to say what the real number is.

But here’s a real number you might like.

Among real people casting real votes in Florida thus far, Republicans outpace Democrats by a few tenths of a percent: 40.4% to 40%. TargetSmart/William&Mary has polled those people who have actually voted already in Florida, thus removing some of the uncertainty from the equation.

28% of Republicans who have already voted in Florida… have voted for Hillary Clinton!

It’s these little tidbits of info that tell us the true nature of the race.  Keep the pedal to the metal, and bring a friend to the polls.  But be of good cheer, my friends; it’s not as close as some would have you think.