Here on the Left Coast there is a storm brewing in several congressional districts that threatens to turn the congressional red-blue balance on its ear.

As a denizen of CD-41, one of these races is of high interest to me. A longtime member of Congress, Ken Calvert has comfortably weathered fifteen challenges from Democratic opponents. But in 2022, Calvert came so close to defeat that he could hear the bullet whizz past his ear.

Too soon?

This was because of the 2021 redistricting which put Calvert in a newly redrawn CD-41 which now includes what has been called (but not by me, no way) “the gayest city in California“.

In 2022, Calvert edged his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Attorney Will Rollins by a mere 11,100 votes. That’s fewer votes than TFG needed from Georgia Governor Kemp in 2020.

But now I am learning that, with the switcheroo that replaced Joe Biden with Kamala Harris at the top of the ballot, Rollins, who is repeating his run at replacing Calvert in this year’s contest, has an even better chance to knock over the MAGA-prone Republican.

With Harris now at the top of the ballot, new polls are showing a trend that 7 Republican congressmen in California are now eying: Harris polls 8 points higher against TFG than Biden did among California Hispanic voters.

Should this continue down ballot, Calvert will experience (excuse me for being born in a less cultivated era) a veritible Mexican Standoff.

By the numbers, CD-41 had 237,000 voting participants in 2022, and the U.S. Census reports that residents of CD-41 are 38% Hispanic. If voting percentages are in the same futbol stadium, this means that there were 90,000 Hispanics that voted in the mid term election. Assuming an 8% shift in their voting, this means that about 7,500 more Hispanic votes will be cast for Rollins this year.

That cuts Calvert’s 2022 edge down to 3,600 votes.

I don’t expect an increase in the LGBTQIA+ vote for Rollins (who is openly gay) this year because they all hate Calvert with the same passion that Calvert believes they are all pedophiles. So, no help from Palm Springs.

This election is still going to be “tight as a tick” as they say, but with the 8% Hispanic bump, plus the additional voters awakened by decisions by a criminally unethical Supreme Court, plus the gravitas of a Presidential (as opposed to a mid-term) election, Congressman Calvert should probably be honing his retirement plans.

He needs a nice (hopefully) long rest.

It cannot be over-emphasized how contagious TFG’s deranged speech is to those who spend what is probably too much time around him. 

I strained to listen to TFG’s lawyer, Will Scharf’s unpunctuated speech to reporters this morning. A speech delivered after oral arguments were made in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case that was heard by a 3-judge panel at the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeal.

Just to make sure that I was hearing what I was hearing, I slowly and methodically transcribed the speech which I have pasted below. I could write a tome on any given point expressed by Mr. Scharf, but my emphasis is the absurd remark that caused me to spray my coffee this morning.

Down the rabbit hole we go, Alice (punctuation guessed at, and here’s a visual aid):

No fair jury could have reached the verdict that was reached in this case, and as a result, we believe that this verdict needs to be overturned. But there’s more than that. In addition to this improper propensity evidence, President Trump and his trial team were prevented from cross-examining E. Jean Carroll and other witnesses on crucial issues. Crucial issues in particular, relating to political motivation and the political coordination behind this entire lawsuit. This is a lawsuit that was instigated in large part by George Conway, a longtime political foe and adversary of President Trump. This is a lawsuit that was funded by Reid Hoffman, a key political ally of the Biden-Harris Administration and a major Democrat donor. We were limited in the evidence we were allowed to present at trial about these crucial facts. We were limited in cross-examining E. Jean Carroll on aspects of that dynamic that underlies the entire lawsuit, and that, too, unfairly corrupted the jury’s deliberations in this case and requires reversal of the jury verdict. I think this political coordination point is particularly important, though it is important to emphasize because what we have seen in the last few years is a weaponization by the Biden Administration and by their political allies, of our legal system and of our courts to unlawfully unconstitutionally interfere with President Trump’s core First Amendment right to run for President. That is a right guaranteed to him by the constitution. That is the right that his political opponents are attempting to strip away from him. We have seen this in case after case after case where unfair political motives have underlay what should be serious legal proceedings. And I think when you look at this situation in toto, when you look at what the Left, when you look at what the Biden-Harris Administration is attempting to do to President Trump, this is insane.

Uh, excuse me? “President Trump’s core First Amendment right to run for President?”  I never heard of that one. Wait and I’ll go and Google it.

Yeah…no.

“School shootings are a fact of life.” — J.D. Vance

No it’s not. It’s just not. I hate to go all old man on everyone here, but these things didn’t happen when we were kids. I graduated from high school in 1993. I think there was a famous school shooting at the University of Texas back in the day, but that’s pretty much it. In 1999 Columbine happened. In the last 25 years it is has been like shooting fish in a barrel.

So, maybe logic is the way to go about it. I feel like the conservative response is to point to things we know we can’t fix. It’s a whole generation of kids raised by single parents. It’s the violent video games. It is the lack of God in our culture. It’s the ramping up of hate on social media. It’s the mental health.

These things might be true to a greater or lesser extent and I am not here to discount any of those things. However, school violence is a choice. Gun violence is a choice. Every other industrialized country on the planet has figured this out better than we have. It’s not a fact of life. It is what you have chosen to accept.

One of the things I’ve noticed with a child going into the college process is that I wouldn’t have gotten into the institution I went to with the grades I had. My SAT score wouldn’t have been enough. We are loading up our kids with AP courses, college essays, internships, and part-time jobs. These kids aren’t soft like we are accusing them of. They have a lot more on their plate than any of us had.

Now, what does this have to do with the issue at hand? Someone that shoots up a school, mall, movie theater, or anything else by definition is mentally ill. That by definition is someone in distress and is not exercising good coping skills. Mentally ill doesn’t have to mean being in a straight jacket. It doesn’t mean needing a padded room with no sharp things. It doesn’t mean they need copious amounts of medication and therapy.

It is so much more than that. We are increasingly creating an entire generation of people without coping skills. We heap all of this stuff on them, tell them they will have to pay for college for the rest of their lives, won’t be able to ever afford a house of their own, and we provide them with few ways to manage this stress. We tell them they have to choose a path early in life. They need to spend all of their free time either studying or getting better on that path. What stress relief strategies are we providing?

Guns are not necessary for the survival of 99 percent of us. Your little pea shooter is no match for the military might of the largest and most powerful armed force in the history of the planet. I want people to be able to do what they want in their free time as long as it doesn’t endanger me or my family. You can do that without an AR-15. You can do that by simply waiting a week to make sure you don’t have a history of domestic abuse, mental illness, or criminal behavior. Registering your gun is not going to seriously infringe on your rights. Heck, having a license to carry it won’t either.

It must be hard to be a paid campaign staffer on the team trying to pull off a political miracle to re-elect a rapist, a felon, and an overall odious person – especially if that is all one and the same odious person.

LaCivita and Wiles showing leadership

Witness this leaked email message from the two highly paid heads of the TFG team, Chris LaCivita and Susan Wiles, transcribed below:

Team –

Susie and I have always said this is the best team in politics. And each day that passes, we are all reminded how true that is. Everyone has made sacrifices and put in the time and effort to help elect President Trump, Senator Vance, and all Republicans running for office.

Throughout this campaign, we have sent periodic reminders of our communications and press policy when interacting with reporters and media members. Unless you have been authorized by Senior Leadership or have received permission from an authorized member of the Communications Team, you should not be speaking or communicating with any member of the press, on or off record.

We have done a great job of preventing leaks and that has been because everyone knows what the policy is and what we expect from everyone. Information is power – and the press doesn’t give a damn because you lose your job because you spoke out of school.

As this team moves forward with only 61 days left until victory, please do not deviate from this policy. Success requires buy-in from everyone. If just one of us goes off-course, it jeopardizes not only the team but also President Trump and Republicans up and down the ballot.

Onward to victory!

Imagine writing that message to your campaign staff and then seeing that very message posted on the internet one hour later.

I guess someone on the paid staff didn’t take that that very heart-felt communiqué seriously.

Or more likely, maybe they did.

One of our regulars posed a question to me following yesterday’s piece on low information voters. I felt like it deserved an answer. Normally, I might do this in the form of a reply comment, but this answer is a little longer and deserves a little more attention. However, I’m hoping it won’t be my normal 600 word screed either. The question was what we can do about low information voters and dubious media sources that propagate nonsense.

Following Citizens United, it has become more and more clear that money is more powerful than speech. Following 2016, Ms. Carraway and I decided to subscribe to the New York Times and Washington Post. We wanted to support a cause that would fight the coming tyranny and felt that the fourth estate was an important part of that. The tag line “Democracy dies in darkness” was particularly powerful given Trump’s attacks against the media. I am no longer supporting those two particular publications.

The idea of “cancel culture” is quite hilarious to me given that conservatives have mastered the art of cancellation. They do this by withholding money. Sure, there is some sound and fury in there, but companies like Budweiser quickly changed their tune when their bottom line was effected. We must do the same in order to fight back against media sources that either purposefully mislead the public or whitewash the news in order to create a horse race that should never exist.

There is only one reason why anyone would do such a thing and so there is only one way to combat that. If they see that there is a financial risk in not reporting actual news then suddenly they may grow a backbone and report the news. If companies see a risk in supporting a racist jackass then maybe they will stop doing it. They bend to where the money is going and it is high time we use whatever financial muscle we have to exert that pressure.

As far as this is concerned, it is really very simple. We should financially support media sources and companies committed to reporting facts and supporting truth. Is there a script we can use? I suppose that is up to everyone. If you are the kind of person that wants to tell people why they are no longer getting your money then by all means let them have it. Otherwise, the money is the key. So, the Washington Post and New York Times feel it is in their best interest to keep Donald Trump’s political career alive. Let’s show them that its not. Let’s show them that their fiduciary interests and journalistic interests are one and the same. Report the news. All of the news. Report the news or our money goes away. Period. The same goes for any other media source and any other company. If you want to cozy up to MAGA you can do it without my dime.