I hesitate to write this, but I figure a pseudonym and friendly environment provides the best cover. I also think that when my mind immediately went to this it shows not that I or anyone else that thought this are horrible people but that the state of our politics are this bad. However, the very first thought that came to mind when I heard about the news about the Trump “assassination attempt” was that it was a false flag.

Considering there are two people dead that makes the thought that much more detestable. There are three scenarios running through my head and I’ll let the peanut gallery vote for the most likely. I suppose we should add the possibility that all of this is on the level, but I’ll lay that aside for two important reasons. First, the secret service cleared all of those in attendance. So, they either royally fucked this up or something nefarious is at play. Secondly, this just lines up too perfectly. He is essentially unharmed, he gets to play victim, he gets to be in the news cycle, and they get to pin this on either left wing lawless zealots, people of color, immigrants, or they can go for the exacta. Details to come.

Scenario 1

All of the parties were knowingly involved. That means the purps are actually right wing operatives that knew they would be sacrificed. In this scenario the secret service were not involved in the plot. The planners simply knew that those two gentlemen would be taken out. I’m calling this one the least likely because I don’t see people willingly giving up their life for this ass clown, but I could be wrong there.

Scenario 2

The two men killed were not involved at all. It was a false flag that did not involve them. However, it would involve some in the secret service because it would involve them identifying two specific victims that fit the profile that would serve their narrative best. Admittedly, this is the scariest of the three scenarios because it makes the Secret Service complicit and it also means they specifically targeted two innocent people.

Scenario 3

It was a false flag that the Secret Service and those two were not involved in. The Secret Service honestly thought that they were involved and an active threat, so the Secret Service took them out. Honestly, this one is the most likely to me. Obviously, the identify of the two men shot hasn’t been released as of this writing. If they fit a particular narrative too easily then this scenario becomes less likely.

Okay, you place your vote.

This past Thursday, Tesla stock took a hit that no one was expecting. Here’s a plot of the stock’s performance over the past five days.

At one point on Thursday, Tesla had lost $105 billion in value.

Was there a bad news statement on production problems? None reported. An auto safety issue? No. Was there a bad quarterly report? Not even close. Did CNBC business reporter Jim Cramer recommend a strong “Buy” for Tesla stock?

Bingo.

This is known in business news circles as “The Cramer Effect” or more to the point, “The Inverse Cramer”.

Who urged a strong buy of Bear-Stearnes just before the 2008 mortgage crisis? Jim Cramer.

Who promoted FTX just before its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested for fraud? That was Cramer.

Who touted the dot com companies just before that bubble burst? Jim.

There is even an Inverse Cramer Index that tracks his recommendations.

Now, can we get Jim Cramer to recommend a strong “Buy” for TFG?

Bingo. 

“If you think that Trump’s more likely to be president, the overall tone of the stock market will improve if only because the man can’t bear to see it go down, as the major averages are the barometer he uses to measure his own job approval,” Cramer said. “You may think that’s insane, but it’s the reality, and if nothing else — hate him or like him – he’s good for your portfolio.”

I like that. Vote for the serial rapist and convicted felon, so your stock portfolio goes up because TFG will be so mad if it doesn’t.

Inverse Cramer predicts a strong Biden victory.

Booyah!

The wailing and gnashing of teeth over calls for Biden to end his candidacy is 2016 all over again.  I know many Salon customers hate it when I say it, but it’s true.  Hillary was a terrible candidate.  And, just like in 2016, I didn’t say unqualified, I said terrible candidate.  She didn’t listen to local party operatives, walled herself off from everyone who disagreed with her, and ignored calls for her to emphasize battleground states like Michigan believing that she had the election sewed up.  And we all know what happened.  Did Comey and Russian meddling hurt?  Absolutely, but it shouldn’t have been that close for that to have a material effect.  Those are facts that we all knew before the election, yet Hillary and party leaders ignored all the flashing red lights and handed the White House to TFG.

The same goddam thing is happening again with Biden loyalists and the base.  “Stay the course!” “Don’t change horses!” “The voters have spoken!” “If we change candidates, we’re going to lose like Humphrey!” “The Republicans will sue to keep a new candidate off the ballots!”  So on and so forth.  Here are the facts – THE ELECTION IS ALREADY LOST.  Only a miracle, or a thoughtful change, can save it.  Here are the battleground numbers as of TODAY:

TFG has a solid lead in every single battleground state and that’s unlikely to change.  During his press conference a couple of nights ago, Biden said no poll shows he’s losing.  They’re ALL showing he’s losing. Biden either lied, or, more likely, hasn’t been shown these polls.  It’s just math.

Yes, yes, we all know that TFG is a lying gasbag, shitbag, convicted felon, rapist, and every other pejorative adjective you can summon.  But that doesn’t mean a goddam thing to his voters.  In fact, they LOVE that he’s a lying gasbag and convicted felon as it plays into his Earth II narrative that he’s none of those things, but rather a victim of persecution by the “deep state”.  We’re not dealing with facts here folks, we dealing with people who don’t have a grip on reality.  THAT is reality.

While we’re at it, let’s talk about all the handwringing over Republicans suing to keep the Dems from “changing candidates on state ballots”.   First, there are no goddam ballots to change.  Biden, and TFG, for that matter are not the nominees for president.  There ARE no ballots, at least yet.  That doesn’t happen until AFTER the conventions.  Even then, there are mechanisms to change candidates, but that’s not what we’re talking about.  We’re talking about replacing Biden before or during the convention.  Suing to keep a new candidate off state ballots is a Republican talking point started by the Heritage Foundation (yes, that Heritage Foundation).  Like everything else coming out of the Heritage Foundation, it’s bullshit, so stop repeating it, please.  Here’s why.

Lastly, those of us calling for Biden to step aside are not “dividing the party” or “serving Republicans”.  Republicans, including TFG are terrified that the Dems use their heads and change candidates to a dynamic new candidate.  They LOVE running against Biden because they’re looking at the same numbers I am.  The numbers with any other major candidate are worse for TFG.

In short, every number points to a loss if Biden stays on the ticket.  Also, it increases greatly the chances of losing both the House and the Senate at the same time.  Those are inconvenient facts.  Ignoring those facts will lead to another TFG term in the White House and we should all be terrified of that.

Like everyone else, I was not happy at President Biden’s weak performance at the June 29th debate. But the pre-debate hype didn’t help. SOTU Joe didn’t show up as the media talking heads all promised us he would. Some other guy did. Excuses were made (head cold, jet lag, over-prepped) but in the end, all it earned the man was a swift kick in the pants by former supporters, and pleasantly surprised jeers from the MAGA crowd.

As I poke this text into my phone, the tides of opinion are still rising and falling. Each day brings us another county heard from.

In a previous post, and in making a different point, I suggested that any Democrat could beat a serial rapist with 34 felony convictions. The point was that TFG is more beatable now than he ever was before. As I wrote after the debate: “No one who isn’t a captive of The Former Guy’s demagogery is saying I really want this guy to be president again.”

That, at least, hasn’t changed. Except now, we have talk of open conventions (from which no emerging candidate has ever been elected in modern times) or a new “real primary” (as opposed to the one I voted in).

This situation echoes one that I experienced in 2006. Tom DeLay (R TX-22) was my congressman then. He had a bad primary with three opponents trying to oust him, and he got “only” 62% of the vote. That was bad news for Tom, and fearing defeat, he decided not to run in the General Election. The Republican Party of Texas got busy looking for someone to replace him on the ballot in November.

Then, lawyers for the Texas Democratic Party, calling a halt to that utter nonsense, got that whole thing thrown out in federal court with the brilliant notion that nothing in the Constitution prevented DeLay from being the nominee.

As is the case now.

Do you think that for one minute the Republican lawyers, the Heritage Foundation, or both, will sit on their hands watching as we Democrats try and fix things by looking for a younger, better, “winning-er” presidential candidate?

Experience tells us that the answer is “what the H-E-double hockey-sticks made you think that?” Have we learned nothing?

Sorry. For just this one reason alone, a torrent of litigation, we have to leave this dance with the one who brung us. To top it off, we have a perfectly good, some say great, Vice-President to assure the continuity of an administration that has had huge legislative success thanks in no small part to Biden’s senatorial mojo.

But hey, if it turns out that, for one reason or another, we have a President Harris before 2029, we can reassure all who still have reservations about him, that a Vice President Newsom is as unlikely a possibility as a Vice President Rubio.

Like George Clooney, I love me some Joe Biden.  With decades of experience in the Senate, then as Obama’s VP, and then as President who pulled us back from the TFG and Covid abyss in 2020, Biden has been in the right place at the right time for years.  I supported him strongly in 2016 when Hillary boxed him out and handed the White House to TFG the first time.  I backed Biden in 2020 because he was the only Dem candidate running who had a chance of unseating TFG.  He succeeded magnificently and has done a great job shoveling out the manure that TFG piled into the White House the previous 4 years.  However, the Biden of 2024 is clearly not the Biden of 2008, 2016, or 2020.  Like many others whose opinions count for a lot more than mine, I agree that Biden cannot beat TFG, period.  Clooney says that, three weeks ago when he was with Biden in NY for a huge fundraiser, Biden was the same Biden we all saw on national television who totally and completely fumbled THE debate.  The orchestra is playing, and it’s time to gracefully exit the stage.

I know this is not a popular opinion among many of the party faithful and a lot of customers of the Salon, but the numbers support my opinion.  Though Biden is statistically tied with TFG in national polls, he’s LOSING EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE by an average of over 5 points.  At this point in the cycle, that almost guarantees, barring a miracle, a Biden loss.  To believe Biden can win the electoral college in 2024 requires complete suspension of disbelief and blindness to facts.  In a word, if Biden doesn’t drop out, and I mean RIGHT NOW, we’re all fucked in 2024, because we’ll not only lose the White House, but likely the House and Senate.  That means, especially with a packed and corrupted SCOTUS, that there will be no guard rails to stop the goons who will be running the entire federal government and most of the states.  That, my dear readers, is unacceptable risk.

Like LBJ, Biden must graciously withdraw and then actively support a plan to replace him as a candidate.  Carville published a great plan a couple of days ago that outlined a short, transparent primary process moderated by 42 and 44 to select a new candidate.  This opinion will also piss off some of our customers, but I disagree that Biden should just endow Harris with the nomination.  Her numbers are almost as bad as his and won’t garner the support of undecideds like an open process.  This needs to be thrown open to other very strong candidates like Witmer, Newsom, Buttigieg, Moore, AND Harris in a process that is public, transparent, and fair.

I don’t want to hear the bullshit argument that the “primary voters have already spoken”.  That’s nonsense.  There was no real primary process; no debates, no real alternatives (including Dean Philips), and no active process, so the voters have NOT spoken.  There must be another alternative and that needs to happen NOW.

Americans should have one goal, and one goal only for 2024: soundly thrashing TFG at the polls.  We have to kill the cancer of MAGA and the cult of personality and that needs to happen now.  The DOJ has failed us; the federal and state courts have failed us; the SCOTUS has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the majority is profoundly corrupt and ruling for their actual constituents (the billionaires and extremists) and not for the rule of law.  None of our guardrails are working.  To save the US and our almost 250 year old form of government, we have to save ourselves.  And we, as voters, need someone to coalesce around, and that ain’t Joe Biden.

So there.