.

Obituary in Richmond, Virginia.  Click here to read it all.

It’s real.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is under indictment for about 20 different felonies and is a real sinker, has gone all sex sex sex over the gender neutral bathrooms thing.

First off, I do not want my kids to go to any of the bathrooms with Ken Paxton. I don’t trust the guy. He’s creepy.

Paxton got semi-famous because his wife goes around to Republican meetings singing, “I’m a pistol packing momma and my husband sues Obama,” which sounds vaguely threatening to me and totally goofy. You can hear it here but I’m warning you, it’s not music, it’s noise.

Anyway, before I forget where I’m going here, Paxton is a’blaze with indignation that President Obama says we should be respectful of our neighbors.  That must be something out of that Muslim stuff because Christians like Ken Paxton say it’s okay to love America but hate Americans.

Anyway, Texas stands to lose again.  Our Governor, our Lt. Gov., and our Attorney General all three say we ain’t gonna let people decide what gender they are because people like them would lie to to see women peepee.  Or that creepy people would hang out in bathrooms looking to do dirty stuff, you know, like Republican politicians.

It stands to reason that since apparently Republican politicians have raunchy ideas and deeds, that maybe we could just bar them from using any public bathrooms.

If Texas Republicans decide that they want to dig in their heels, which seems likely because they are mostly heels, we lose $6 billion in federal funding.  But, look, people dying because we don’t accept our Medicaid funds from the federal government doesn’t bother Republicans, so you think ignorant kids will bother them?

Sumbitches.

What is an Electoral College blowout?

I am defining an Electoral College blowout, somewhat arbitrarily, as 400 EV. Since the number of electoral votes first went above 500 in 1912, the winner has won by a blowout, surprisingly, 14 times! In fact, it’s extremely rare that a President wins with less than 300 EV; that’s only happened 4 times (twice with Dubya) compared to the 3 times in these last 26 elections that the winner has achieved 500 or more electoral votes, what I am calling the Perfect Storm.  So a winning electoral college map above 300 votes is actually the norm!

Doesn’t Trump shake up the map?

Not in a good way for Republicans, because the Trump path to winning the election is not new, it’s not revolutionary and it’s not going to work.

Politico has been doing some deep dives into some of the primary data and has discovered a few things: 1) The new voters that Trump is bringing into the process are really old voters who usually vote in November but rarely vote in primaries.  2) The percentage of Democrats crossing over to vote in the GOP primary is no bigger than the usual amount 3) The number of actual new GOP voters in this cycle is no larger than normal, either.

What this means is that Trump is not putting any blue states in play simply by being Trump, so from the GOP standpoint, this is going to turn into another long slog trying to defend former red states that demographics are turning increasingly purple, while trying to peel off recent purple states that are turning increasingly blue.

In reality, what this means is that the 300+ electoral votes that Obama won in each of the last two elections have actually conformed to the historical norm, and is likely to continue that way, for Hillary, especially as Trump and the GOP continue to weaken recent red strongholds.

Here’s how I see the current starting point, broken out by region.

 I’m serious, you guys!

East-Northeast: From Maryland north and east, including PA – all those states have been solidly in the Democratic column since 1992, except for NH in 2000 (thanks, Nader!) Nothing is going to change that.  Regional EV for Hillary: 112

Upper Midwest/Rust Belt: From Ohio west and north to Minnesota – we lost Ohio in 2000 and 2004 by 3 and 2 points, respectively.  We’ve won it by 5 and 3 points since.  Other than that, Indiana is the only state in this bunch consistently voting red, but not always.  Not counting IN, regional EV for Hillary: 80.  Toss-up: 11

Appalachia/Old South: From West Virginia south and west to the Mississippi – this has mostly been an area of red dominance with a few swing states thrown in.  Bill Clinton did okay here as Bubba.  Florida has been moving blue since 1996, with the GOP only winning there in 2004 (in 2000 they cheated).  Virginia has been breaking blue lately and NC has turned into a swing state.  It will remain in Hillary’s column, thanks in part to bathrooms.  The rest will remain red, for now, except Georgia, which is turning into a swing state.  Regional EV: Hillary 57, Trump: 48, Toss-up 16.

TransMississippi: From Kansas south and east to the river – this has been solidly red, of late and probably will remain so except for a couple of factors.  Kansas and Louisiana as GOP/ALEC laboratories of dumb are in really bad shape.  The recent elections in LA give us hope.  Arkansas, it’s hard to say: they like Bubba but Hill was never as popular there.  Still, it’s one of her “home” states.  Missouri has been threatening to be in play for awhile, and Texas, well, wtf you guys?  Will we ever mobilize the Hispanic vote?  Economic trends, bad GOP stewardship, changing demographics, as well as the possibility of a Texas VP pick for the Dems keep everything in this area as a toss-up (leaning red) in my estimation, except for OK.  Regional EV: Trump 7, Toss-up 68

The Northern Plains: From Nebraska north and west to Idaho – this has been red and will stay red, except for the odd vote-splitting in Nebraska, which will net Hillary 1 EV.  Throw Alaska in for good measure (although, ya know?  Alaska is weird sometimes) and this is the best part of the November 8 for Trump.  Regional EV: Hillary 1, Trump 23, Toss-up 0.

The Four Corners: CO, NM, AZ, UT and add in Nevada – this region has seen the most movement from red to blue, of late, as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada have trended that way for Obama, in part thanks to the growing Hispanic vote.  I believe AZ will also move blue this time, leaving Utah the lone red stalwart in the area – or is it?  Mitt Romney and the Mormons are SO anti-Trump, that I’ve moved this state into the Toss-up column.  Regional EV: Hillary 31, Toss-up 6.

The Left Coast – CA,WA, OR, HI – nothing to say other than Regional EV: Hillary 78.

Which brings us to Hillary 359, Trump 78, Toss-up 101

Will 2016 be a Hillary blowout?

Well, she’s well on her way to one. In order to get to this jumping off point, she has to defend the recent gains like OH, VA and FL, shore up WI and MI, and win new swings like AZ and NC.  Then she has to start creating new swing states like GA and Texas.

Picking up the 41 votes she needs to reach 400 will be difficult without Texas, but still do-able. She will challenge hard in TX, LA, GA and IN, and hope to get lucky in the remaining toss-ups by making Donald Trump play defense in areas where the GOP has lately been having to spend more time.  If she starts to get traction in KY and TN, look out!

But Texas is the key to a new liberal hegemony. If we flip Texas, it’s “Katy, bar the door” and we’re off to the races in search of 500, the Perfect Storm.

Next: The Perfect Storm (this post got too long)

Okay, so the good folks of Klamath County, Oregon, are having an election.  It’s gotten a tad testy.

Someone broke into a ballot drop box in Klamath County and apparently threw the mail-in ballots into a nearby dumpster over the weekend, according to the county’s clerk.

The Klamath County Sheriff’s Office is investigating after around 240 ballots were taken from a box near the Klamath Basin Senior Center. The recovered ballots can still be counted, Klamath County Clerk Linda Smith said.

Now I know you are asking yourself, was it Hillary’s or Bernie’s people?  Neither.  They aren’t on the ballot this time in Klamath County.

Klamath County voters are deciding whether to overturn their county’s ban on marijuana dispensaries. Commissioners banned the pot shops shortly after the Legislature allowed cities and counties to do so if voters in those jurisdictions opposed Ballot Measure 91 by 55 percent or more.

So you know it had to be the No Pot people.  Pot People would have put the dumpster trash in the ballot box instead of the other way around, and you’d know who did it because they’d still be giggling the next day.

There was also a nasty little contested State Senate race among Republican candidates pulling all manner of dirty tricks.  But, picking between dirty Republicans appears to be standard procedure in Klamath County.

At the University of Texas, where campus carry means a safer Texas. (That was a little joke there.)

A University of Texas police officer accidentally shot himself Tuesday morning outside of the campus police department, according to UT police.

Paramedics took the officer to University Medical Center Brackenridge with injuries not considered to be life-threatening.

Initial reports were that the officer shot himself accidentally while performing a weapons check. UT police are investigating the incident, UT police said.

No one else was injured and best we can tell, Aggies are strutting today.

Thanks to Elizabeth for the heads up.

In 2010 a guy named Victor Carrillo ran for re-election to the Texas Railroad Commission and lost in the Republican primary. He blamed the loss on a built-in bias against Hispanic surnames in the Republican party.  Hey, it’s his party, not mine.

But now he says that it was all God’s plan because … you might want to take a deep breath here before you read on … it’s his duty to bring about the second coming of Jesus by finding oil in Israel though Zion Oil company.

Zion’s ultimate purpose is to hasten the second coming of Jesus Christ. Citing Genesis and Deuteronomy and biblical promises of treasure buried deep, Carrillo and other Zion officials say discovering oil in Israel would be another sign of the imminent return of the Christian Messiah.

I’m telling you.  The end of the world is not only their goal, it’s their damn duty.  They cannot wait to see Jesus throw you into lakes of fire.

Despite the weight of biblical imperative, Carrillo and Zion also face the unavoidable reality that, while smaller oil fields have been found, no especially rich deposits have been discovered in the Promised Land.

Calling on a passage that promises “blessings of the deep” and on a hopscotch of geographic clues dotting the Bible, Zion is the latest in a series of companies and individuals that have enticed investors with the promise of biblically oriented oil profits.

Zion, which has focused exclusively on drilling in Israel, also has worked to inspire the biblically minded to invest — raising money through stock offerings to pay salaries, office leases and drilling costs.

You gotta kinda admire Christian Republicans – they never stop dreaming up ways to take people’s money.  Remind me again about Jesus and the moneychangers in the temple.