I apologize for the length of this post. I actually wrote it two weeks ago, after New York. At that time, Hillary Clinton had 502 superdelegates promising to support her, while Bernie Sanders had 38. At that time, Bernie’s alter ego and campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, aggressively laid out the superdelegate strategy for winning the nomination even if the popular vote and the pledged delegate count were both against him.
So I wrote this at that time and then, uncharacteristically, put it into a drawer. I wanted to give Bernie a chance to articulate his vision for the end of the race, and to let emotions drain out of the decision-making process, before forcing a 1000-word essay on y’all.
At first, Bernie seemed apt to wind down his rhetoric and accept the hand Fate had dealt him. But Weaver and Bernie’s wife, Jane, still seemed ready to fight. A week or so of mixed messages while they sorted out this intra-familial squabble has brought us here, where Bernie is chewing iron and spitting nails, and insisting that polls where Hillary leads Trump by fewer points than Bernie leads Trump mean that now 520 superdelegaters are all wet, and that the 17-point pasting he’s received thus far in the popular vote means NOTHING.
And so, without further ado, here are the Top Ten Reasons the Superdelegates Won’t Switch to Bernie.
Number 10: Superdelegates are people, too – And people generally don’t like to look silly in public. Even if they believed that Bernie was a better choice, so long as Bernie is not the ONLY choice, they won’t want to look stupid switching horses midstream. And staying with Hillary RIGHT UP until the time she’s boxed Bernie out wouldn’t just look stupid, it would look nuts.
Number 9: Superdelegates are DEM-O-CRATS – The Democratic Party is a private club, with very lax membership requirements. Essentially, all you have to do to BECOME a Democrat is to claim to be one, even if you were something else. Four of the five Democrats in the first debate have traveled that route, including former Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton. But her declaration came decades ago, not seven months ago. Democratic superdelegates will stay with someone who has been a Democratic standard bearer for the past 25 years.
Number 8: Superdelegates are appreciative – Most of the superdelegates are office holders, looking to remain so. Hillary Clinton has committed to helping them do so, not with a nebulous army of revolutionaries who may or may not find a superdelegate running in a down-ticket race sufficiently pure so as to earn their vote, but with a turnout machine, personal visits by Hillary and money, all of which she has wielded on their behalf in the past and will continue to do so. “Bernie, what have you done for me lately?” has no answer.
Number 7: Superdelegates are risk-averse – Never mind the hundreds of superdelegates Bernie needs who aren’t going to switch to him, think about being among the first. To great fanfare, in contravention of the wishes of the majority of the Democratic voters, you decide to screw Hillary and switch to Bernie. But the cascade of late-adopters never comes, and you’ve just walked out onto a limb and President Hillary Clinton has the chain saw: your future in the Democratic Party will be a sharp drop and a sudden stop, assuming she uses it on the branch and not on you, directly. You may as well turn Socialist.
Number 6: Superdelegates are professional politicians – Speaking as a retired pro, we know that head-to-head polls between potential November candidates are meaningless, until both conventions are over. Until then, polls are soap bubbles and smoke. We also know that not one serious piece of opposition research has been dropped onto Bernie – he’s a paper messiah only until he’s withstood some of what Hillary has faced. She’s handled him with kid gloves, except for the occasional elbow. Everything in our gut says Hillary is the right move, and 500+ professional politicians can’t all be wrong.
Number 5: Superdelegates are proud – Bernie and his people have been running them down as the antithesis of democracy from day one, not just as a perversion of the democratic primary process, but also as “corporate whores” right alongside Hillary. Now he’s begging for their help, and appealing to the better angels of their “corrupt” natures? As a superdelegate, my answer to that would be two words, and they wouldn’t be “Happy Birthday.”
Number 4: Superdelegates aren’t dumb – Women and minorities ARE the Democratic margin of victory, especially women. Women and minorities support Hillary, who is a woman. How far do superdelegates think they will get in Democratic politics without women and minorities? How far do they think the Party will get? How far do they think the country will get?
Number 3: Superdelegates are fair-minded – Hillary took a bad beat in 2008 like a champ. She waited her turn, supported Obama, built up her relationships and her resume, won the 2016 primaries and basically did everything we’ve ever asked a candidate to do.
Number 2: Superdelegates are practical – Someone took umbrage when I called Bernie “underfunded” the other day. But a large amount of his working capital has gone towards ads rather than staff and infrastructure, which is why he spends more than Hillary in every state, and yet loses more than half of them. Comparing apples to apples, he has kept close, yet he has millions less cash on hand to finish the primaries with. Hillary, on the other hand, has spent less, and won more. But it‘s in comparing oranges to oranges that we really see the difference. Bernie has very few oranges – SuperPACs – compared to Clinton. He has a SuperPAC of some nurses spending on his behalf, and very little else. The challenge for SuperPACs supporting Hillary, however, was to decide the smallest amount of money to spend on ads for the primary, while hoarding their hordes of ducats for the general. Bernie hasn’t managed the practicalities of funding and building a winning campaign yet, and he would be destroyed by SuperPACs and irony in the summer and fall.
And Number 1: Superdelegates have their eye on history – To wit: Hillary Clinton, the first woman to become President of the United States. Another old white guy isn’t going to get in the way of that.