It’s been awhile since we talked, and I apologize for giving in to my corporate overlords and actually – ya know – working, lately. But let’s talk about tonight:
What’s at stake, Dems: For Bernie, every Tuesday is an existential puzzle. He’s 300 pledged points down at halftime, and would have to perform in the second half as well as Hillary did in the first half, just to go to overtime (the convention). Caucuses and demographics should favor him in Idaho and Utah – should! – where a total of 56 delegates are at stake. But the AZ primary should go big for Hillary – should! – where there are 75. Tonight looks to be a big night for no one, but Bernie probably won’t gain any ground in his first series of the third quarter. It’s going to be death by 2382 cuts for him, but he’s going to make Hillary earn every one.
What’s at stake, snacilbupeR: On Feb. 18, we said of Trump
…if anyone is going to knock him off and win outright, they have to have made it a two-horse race by the end of March. If the goal is just to deny him the nomination, and prolong the fight over a slow April … then two other candidates have to emerge as winners in several states between now and March 16. If Trump hits the Arizona primary on March 22 with a big lead and a fractured field, no one can stop him.”
A lot of that has happened. The field is no longer fractured, and the lead is big but not BIG big – a plurality only. At stake tonight is Arizona’s 58 delegates, Utah’s 40 proportional delegates, and American Samoa’s mighty 9 unbound delegates.
If Cruz is going to make it a two-horse race, he has to knock out Kasich. Which explains what no TV pundits I saw could: Why is Cruz spending so much time in a winner-take-all Arizona race he can’t win? Because he has to destroy John Kasich – plan A – while denying Trump over 50% and making him look vulnerable and looking like a strong finisher himself so that a brokered convention – plan B – turns to the strongest-looking non-Trump.
It’s still Trump’s race to lose, and he just may. He won’t close it out in March, and he won’t in April, either, nor yet in May, unless he wins EVERY bound delegate between now and Washington State on May 24. He can’t actually win during that time, and he can’t actually lose. But he can be denied.
It all comes down to June 7, with proportional New Mexico, and four winner take all states, including California.
Then on to Cleveland where, after this summer, “The Mistake by the Lake” takes on a whole new meaning.