Bumpless at the Bottom
da Chipster
The first night of the 2012 Democratic National Convention is in the books and – man! – it was one for the books! The Honorable Julian Castro, mayor of San Antonio (where my mama is from) rocked the house, and showed the GOP what a real future of Hispanics in politics (and America) looks like, and Michelle was, quite simply, stunning.
But the real story emerging Tuesday was the lack of bump for Rmoney-Lyin coming out of the Republican National Convention. Typically, a ticket receives much more favorable poll ratings in the days immediately following their convention, sometimes upward of 20 points. And this makes sense, when voters have just been subjected to a 3-day pep rally glorifying the candidate and excoriating his opponent.
In recent years, however, this bump has been much less. 2004, 2008 and now, 2012 have all shown bumps under 5%. There are a couple of reasons for that. First, 24-hour news channels have extended the horse race for President to a 2-year marathon, so you’re getting a lot more exposure prior to the convention. Second, convention coverage has dwindled on networks, so out of a 72-hour infomercial, we only see a few hours of the high-profile speakers, most of whom we are well familiar with.
Furthermore, my favorite mathematician, Nate Silver, has shown that in the course of the last week, Obama’s chances for re-election have gone UP to better than 3 in 4. Bookmark that site, it’s beauteous.
What this means in practical terms for this election is similar to what it meant for 2004. You can’t run an entire campaign saying “I’m not him” unless you’re Jimmy Carter in 1976 and the “him” is the specter of Richard Nixon.
If, however, you are Mitt Romney, noted liar, cultist (to Evangelicals, I could care less what planet his “god” is from) and out-of-touch zillionaire with the lowest likability ratings since Simon Legree, it means that at what should be your high point, you’re still looking up from the bottom of a very deep well…and it’s starting to rain.
(PS: Customers, any Susan/Bubba sightings on the TeeVee or Interweb videos?)