Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’

Adopting Britain

June 30, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Look, things are so bad in England right now that the only sensible and kind solution is for us to make them the 51st State.  However, they don’t get two Senators or any House members at all.  If you want to call it “payback” for taxation without representation that’s a little harsh. True, but harsh.

UK-Union-FlagThere are some drawbacks, however.

First, we’d have to decide once and for all what football is. Is it football or is it soccer? I think we need an answer.

We’d have to print ballots in two languages:  English and whatever Harry Potter language it is that they speak.

The little prince will have to get involved with a Kardashian.

We get Dame Judith Dench. They have to take Kanye.

They can come to our horse races and they can even wear those hats, but none of that tea drinking. It’s Mint Juleps or go home.

You know those little sandwiches with the crust cut off filled with cucumber? No. Don’t do that. Come to think of it, we shouldn’t allow them to cook at all.

They have to shuddup about Martin Luther when the Pope visits.

Polo and Cricket are out. I have no idea what the point of those games are, but there are way too many mallets involved.  How would baseball be if everybody on the field had a bat?  It’d be polo, that’s what.  If it doesn’t involve the infield fly rule or first downs, just don’t do it.

If you’re going to call it Boxing Day, boxing has to be involved.

They can keep the Queen. Her idiot son is quite another matter.

Michael Gove? We’ll ask him to do the honor of swimming over to DeeCee to finalize this contract.

All of these rules are open for revision and addition by the customers and staff of The World’s Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, Inc.

 

Oh Noes, Hillary is LOSING?

June 30, 2016 By: Primo Encarnación Category: Uncategorized

In a sea of blue, ranging from a Clinton lead of two to a Clinton lead of twelve, the line stands out like a crimson streak: Rasmussen Reports 6/29, Clinton 39, Trump 43. Trump leads by 4 points. You might think it’s strange, with all the other polls showing Hillary ahead, and especially compared to the last Rasmussen Reports poll a week prior: Clinton 44, Trump 39.  You’d be right to think so: it IS strange.

How did this race shift 9 points in a week? Is this some sort of outlier? Well, yes and no.

Yes, this is an outlier compared to all the other polls measuring the state of the race. But it’s not an outlier for Rasmussen. At 39%, Hillary in this poll is below 40% for just the sixth time ever in this race. The previous polls that only have her in the 30s are:

I'm sensing a pattern here.

I’m sensing a pattern here.

  • Rasmussen, June 1, 39%
  • Rasmussen, May 18, 37%
  • Rasmussen, April 28, 39%
  • Rasmussen, April 26, 38%
  • Rasmussen, Dec 23, 37%

In fact, in 101 polls taken since last May, only these six Rrrrreports show her below 40%.  Of those same 101 polls, a total of 10 show Trump ahead, and only 3 show them tied. Of those 13 polls tied-or-worse results, 5 of them are Rasmussen polls, (and 4 are from FOX, well, duh!)

You’ve seen me refer to them as Rrrrrasmussen in the past. All those R’s are in there for a rrrrreason. They are consistently outside the margins of this set of polls partly because they say they poll “Likely” voters. Every polling organization has their own “secret sauce” for determining likely voters. Sure, they ask someone what their intentions are come election day, just like they ask whom that someone would vote for if they indeed vote. But no one at this stage of any campaign is measuring likely voters because, especially in THIS campaign, no one can model what likely voters would likely look like in November.

Rasmussen also uses robo calls, (“Press. Six.Six.Six. For. Hillaryclinton.”) instead of in-person calling, and they “smooth” their numbers via another secret sauce which… well, I’ll let them explain it:

Hint: it's mostly mayonnaise.

Hint: it’s mostly mayonnaise.

…the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men…

A lot of pollsters do something similar to be able to account for differences in their data versus the general populace, i.e. everyone has their own secret sauce and that’s what leads to a measurable “house effect” – the difference between poll results and reality, based on the pollster’s methods.

But in a lot of polls this year, I have seen Hispanic turnout smoothed to 8% of the voting populace, which is historically the average, but we all know that average is rising, and their likelihood of participation in THIS election, with THESE candidates, is likely to be much higher than that.

But there’s one other part of Rasmussen’s methodology which really sets my teeth on edge. Cellphones have been incorporated into most pollsters’ calling patterns, but not for these guys. Rrrrrassy, how do you handle cell phones?

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from  a demographically diverse panel.

Hmm, a random subset of a panel that Rasmussen created to be demographically diverse. I guess that means they let some non-Southern Baptists on, maybe a Cuban or two, for tincture.

I’ve said before, at this point in the race don’t look at the raw numbers of polls, so much as their trends with respect to each other, and with respect to previous results from the same pollster. These trends are all telling me that Hillary is indeed on her way to a big victory, but how big will be difficult to quantify until after the conventions.

But will that stop me from trying to make big, bold predictions? Of course not!   So coming up soon, we will look the status of the race based on what has happened in the past 6 weeks, since our series on Hillary’s electoral chances, and what lies ahead.

In the meantime, take all these conflicting poll numbers with several grains of salt, and for FOX and Rrrrrasmussen, take them with a shot of tequila and a bite of lime, too, for they are the out-liars.

Good Morning, Ladies

June 30, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Oh my.

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The following is completely stolen and edited off of Facebook from R. Eric Thomas.

Whoever took this photo deserves a Pulitzer Prize. We may be two minutes from doomsday but thank the Lord we still live in a universe where three world leaders can strut into a room like they’re the new interracial male cast of Sex and the City. Like I have ALREADY prepurchased tickets to this film. Out here in these streets looking like Career Day Ken. Looking like the Alternate Universe version of our Current Political Universe. Looking like Tom Ford presents The Avengers. How you going to be one of the leaders of the “free” world and still stalk the runway, killing all our faves?  YES YOU BETTA SALUTE, YOU MOUNTIES! Based solely on this photo all three of them were just declared the first non-drag winners of RuPaul’s Drag Race. Happy Heterosexual Pride Day, y’all. And look at Obama’s smile! Don’t try to tell me that man isn’t angling for the lead in a Rihanna’s next music video. Drake wishes he was this happy. And Drake is so happy. Oh my God. I need to sit down. I’m getting light-headed.

It can’t be said better than that, my friend.

Thanks to Tameika for the heads up.

 

This Is Kinda Fun

June 30, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Okay, so Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah popped his nose outta joint yesterday throwing a hissy fit about Donald Trump. He said that Trump accused his “best friend’s father of conspiring to kill John Kennedy” (and you thought Ted Cruz didn’t have any friends), that he’s “religiously intolerant,” that people in Utah don’t like him, and that he often dresses in high heels and black knee socks.

Okay, so I made up that last one.  So sue me.

Next thing I see is a story from NBC News about Donald Trump saying “there should be consequences” for Republicans who aren’t supporting him.

Yeah, well, that’s not news.  But, the visuals on the story got me to chuckle.

 

Screen Shot 2016-06-30 at 10.55.36 AM

I had to read it twice before I understood that Trump wasn’t going to waterboard Republicans who don’t support him.

To be honest, I was disappointed because that would have been the absolute coolest Republican convention ever.

 

Is the Pope Catholic? You Know, I Mean Catholic Enough?

June 29, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Okay, when you can out-Catholic the Pope, you might want to reconsider your position.

The Pope said he feels that the Catholic Church (and by that he means all Christians) needs to apologize to gay people, the poor, “to women who have been exploited, to children forced into labor, apologize for having blessed so many weapons.”

Yeah, he’s saying we’re sinners and should stand in judgment of exactly no one.

Oh hell, no, says Bill Donohue, the president of the Catholic League.

Unknown“No,” Donohue said on CNN’s “New Day” Tuesday when asked if he would apologize. “As a matter of fact, I want an apology from gays. I’ve been assaulted by gays. I’ve never assaulted a gay person in my entire life.”

Bless his heart, he does know that assault doesn’t have to be physical, right?

Let me give you an example of assault.  While being interviewed on teevee filled with righteous indignation, Donohue proudly took part in this exchange ….

“Can you show me where Jesus said we should spend time saying we should not let people be who they are and what they’re about?” Cuomo asked.

“There are mobster lifestyles,” Donohue replied, noting that he would condemn violent lifestyles.

See, when you go on teevee and compare gay people to mobsters, that’s an assault.  The Pope is telling you, “Don’t do that crap.”

I hear there’s an opening in the choir at Kim Davis’ church.  Maybe he’d be happier there.

Thanks to everybody for the heads up.

Gotta Love Colorado Republicans

June 29, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Republicans felt pretty certain that they could win a senate seat in Colorado.  Democrat Michael Bennet, who just barely won in 2010, seemed vulnerable to them.

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 11.07.11 AMColorado Republicans were all set to win, but they couldn’t find a damn candidate.  Apparently, a little known county commissioner with very little financial backing won the primary. And he’s a tad crazy.

Darryl Glenn did it again. With little money and an all-volunteer staff, the county commissioner from El Paso shocked the Republican establishment again Tuesday by clinching the party’s nomination for U.S. Senate and earning a chance to unseat Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet in November.

Glenn is endorsed by Ken Cuccinelli and Sarah Palin.  He has promised “not to work with Democrats” if elected.  He’s Ben Carson minus the sparkling personality.

But here’s the fun part.  In describing the primary, the Denver Post wrote ….

The Election Night results capped a bizarre primary that featured a menagerie of chaos from forgery charges and millionaire candidates to an exploding toilet and a Great Dane named Duke.

Hell, how did we miss that?

Thanks to Bryan for the heads up.