Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’

Will 2016 Be a Hillary Blowout – Part Deux

October 20, 2016 By: Primo Encarnación Category: Uncategorized

The debates are over. The closing arguments for the 2016 general election campaign have begun. Barring a Hillary melt-down, she will be the President-elect of the United States in less than three weeks and does anyone think she’s capable of melting down within sight of the finish line? Trump’s capitulation notwithstanding, the world will wake up on November 9 heaving a collective sigh of relief. Will he concede? Probably in some mealy-mush-mouthed form that leaves just enough of an out for him and his bundists to reinterpret it for years to come, but that won’t matter.

So, WILL 2016 be a Hillary blowout?

The answer increasingly looks like “Hell, Yes!” Let’s revisit the things that had to have happened

[In 2012] Obama carried 51.1% of the popular vote; that victory was largely based on carrying the following demographics: Women 55-44; AfAm 93-6; Asian 73-26; Hispanic 71-27; LGBT 76-22. Do you see Hillary’s numbers going up or down in these growing constituencies against Trump? Then consider these opportunities for growth against Obama’s performance in 2012: He lost married women 53-46; he lost independents 50-45; he lost college graduates 51-47. Do you see Trump improving or worsening on Romney’s numbers in these areas?

Hillary HAS improved in all of these areas, BIGLY, and she now leads by among Men, and among the Non-college-educated. Full stop.

What else needed to happen? Here we listed what could comprise the Perfect Storm:

  • “Let Trump be Trump”- Check!
  • “Perception: The media “horserace” narrative must be overcome” – Check!
  • “Depressed GOP turnout – especially among women, who will be subjected to months of Trump’s misogyny…Strong Dem turnout and some crossover GOP votes – especially among women and minorities.” – remains to be seen but looking like Check!
  • “Vice Presidential nominees” – no effect.
  • “Election strategy – Trump is the king of earned media and very little else…Hillary should be able to out-organize him everywhere.” – Check!
  • “Will: CHALLENGE EVERYWHERE.” Half a Check – getting there

That last point bears examination. Hillary has foreclosed on the typical swing states and is moving into new areas. Kansas, Arkansas and Louisiana are not coming along as well as we’d hoped, and South Carolina is surprisingly close, but the Clinton campaign resisted branching out into new territory until they felt they had the old territory completely wrapped up. It was this cautious (but, importantly, winning!) strategy that has narrowed the map to the point where 500+ EV seem all but out of reach, but 400 is eminently do-able.

So where does that put us? Here is where I see the map as of today:

Toldja so!

Toldja so!

I have a lot more in the blue column than most pundits are comfortable with right now because I am predicting that Hillary’s momentum will continue, and that GOP turn-out will be depressed. In addition, all other things being equal, a strong ground-game will net you 1-3 percentage points above predicted polls. With zero Trump ground game, and what exists of the GOP ground game torn between their local heroes and the toxic top of the ticket, the situation is dire for Republican turnout. For that reason, states that currently show mid-single-digit leads for Trump could actually end up being blue, and thus are now toss-ups.

What this map gives you is 375 Electoral Votes for Hillary, versus 86 for Trump, with 77 toss-ups. It is possible that Trump wins those 77, although I give Hillary and Evan McMullin a better chance to win Utah than Trump. But it would be strange if somehow the Trump campaign stumbled onto the formula for holding Florida or Ohio. If he wins those, it will be on the coat tails of the down-ballot races.

Rather than making it a closer race, I believe it is more possible that the entire scampaign will collapse under the featherweight at the top and a 10- to 14-point landslide could put us more in Perfect Storm range. At the very least, such a victory would flip both houses of Congress and provide a mandate for governance that would last a year. It’s more likely, however, that voter ennui and inertia will result in a solid victory for Hillary, a close but Blue Senate, and a close but Red House.

The takeaway: 270 is still a lock – always has been – but turnout and vote-splitting for a Party in such disarray as the GOP is entirely unpredictable even at this late stage. It could be a lonely landslide, or it could be a Big Blue Tsunami!

I’m voting – for the latter.

Whoa, Wait. Did I Miss Something?

October 20, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Trumplethinskin sent out a fundraising letter this morning.  Get a load of this crapola.



Trump called Hillary puppet last night?  Was I confused about who was talking?

I thought it was the other way around and so did CNN.

Either he’s delusional or he thinks his supporters are.  Probably both.  Bigly.


Okay, This is Cute

October 20, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Okay, sick of Donald Trump’s crazy 3:00 am tweets?

Hillary’s guys have set up a program where you can donate to Hillary every time Donald Trump tweets.  You can sign up for as little as 25 cents a tweet and put a daily limit on it to as little as $1.00

I take some delight in knowing that every time that jerk tweets, Hillary benefits.

Have some fun.

Thanks to Bryan for the heads up.

Yeah, That’ll Work.

October 20, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

We now have scientific proof that supporting Donald Trump lowers your IQ points.

Sean Hannity, y’all, is not taking Donald Trump’s failed campaign in good spirits.

He’s all over Paul Ryan like ugly on a bullfrog.



Yeah, that Gohmert, the guy who thought Texas was being invaded during a military drill, and has said so many wacky things that it takes ten pages on google to list them all – on this website alone!

Now take another sip of coffee and think about Louie Gohmert leading the House of Representatives and being third in line for the presidency. No, don’t pick up the butter knife and point it at your heart.  With any luck at all, a Democrat will hold that position in January.

Thanks to Fred for the heads up.

All The Nasty Women Check In!

October 20, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

I need all the Nasty Women and the people who love them to line up over here to the left and check in because we have a job to do before November 8th.  Bad hombres are invited, too.

I was at a party last night sponsored by the Bangladesh American Society. It was a blast. These are people who have chosen to be Americans, have been tested on their Constitutional knowledge, and were outraged at the way Donald Trump treats women and the Bill of Rights.



But, if they graciously offer you a beautiful plate of food and it has some sort of innocent looking creamed corn on it, holy cow, do not put that in your mouth.  Hell, I’m from Texas and that was 190 degrees too hot for me.

By the way, the biggest laugh of the night from the room came when Trump said, “Nobody respects women more that I do.”


Open Debate Thread

October 19, 2016 By: Juanita Jean Herownself Category: Uncategorized

Please feel free to chat it up!