Harvey Update
OK, kids. All of you along the Gulf Coast from Houston to Brownsville need to turn on your TeeVee for the latest weather. The National Hurricane Center has now forecast landfall late Friday night NORTH of Corpus and south of Victoria. The storm has strengthened rapidly and is forecast to reach Category 3 before coming ashore, hitting 125 MPH winds before coming inland.
That’s not the big problem, though. The big problem is that the damn thing is forecast to stall just inland until as late as Tuesday before dissipating. It’s going to dump a LOT of rain on the coastal areas, and Houston is going to see its share. Back at El Jefe’s Beer & Bread Emporium, we call this kind of storm a Clear Up Shower. Clear up to your ass. Forecast rains for Houston could be 12″ to 18″ of rain through Sunday into Monday.
Y’all pay attention to this one, this is going to be a wet one. We’ll be watching closely.
A stalled weather system can be serious. We had one over our neighborhood some years ago, 27″ in 24 hours. Down the road they had 33″ in 24 hours, bridges washed out, sections of road collapsed, rock walls toppled.
Clear Up is right. Unless you Clear Out.
1And from what I can see here on my tv weather map, there is a front descending from the north and will run almost in a straight line from Dallas clear over to the Atlantic Coast. This will drop temps behind it but it may turn into a barrier that will keep Harvey hanging around making trouble. I wish to gosh this won’t happen!
2I don’t think we were affected by it in Maryland, but in 1989 we kept hearing about “the remnants of Allison” for what seemed like weeks. It made landfall in Texas and I think some of it eventually went back out via North Carolina.
Everybody take care and don’t drive on flooded roads. It doesn’t take much water, running hard, to knock you loose.
3This is what my friend from Little Rock used to call an “Arkansas Frog Strangler.”
4Jane and I send our best wishes for all of you Texans at the WMDBS to stay safe and dry. If clouds could be lassoed, we would drag them to leave all of you alone and position them over the houses of snacilbupeR politicians reserving the leakiest of umbrellas for Loopy Louie Gohmert.
5I have heard toad frog strangler. I have no idea what a toad frog is.
6gullywasher
7Turf floater.
8Turd not turf. Damned autocorrect.
9EL JEFE — If you’re giving storm updates, please tag the TIME since so much can change very quickly. Believe me about that; I’ve been in four hurricanes.
10frog choker
11We had five feet of salt water in the yard and three in the house during Hurricane Ivan. A year or so ago we got 22″ of rain in 24 hours. So I ain’t just whistling whatever it is we’re allowed to whistle these days when I say, take every precaution you can.
And be safe. Six inches of water running across a road will take your car into the ditch.
Good luck. You are in our prayers.
12We had a blizzard, 23 + inches of snow this winter.
13But that much rain, I have not experienced .
I do remember hurricanes when I was a kid.
But this sounds bad.
Stay safe everyone who is in his path.
I live on the south side of Houston, about 12 miles from Alvin. In 1979 Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 42″ of rain on Alvin in 24 hours, an all-time record for the U.S. That was in July. In September, we had another storm that produced 24″ in 24 hours. I’ve seen forecasts that say this storm may be even worse, including one that forecasts about 60″ (yes, five feet!) or rain in the Columbus, TX, area.
The problem is that steering currents will be very weak, so the storm will move very slowly. Meteorologists have a rule of thumb that says if you divide 100 by the storm’s forward motion in miles per hour, that will give you the approximate amount of rainfall. For example, if the storm is moving at 5 mph, then 100/5 –> 20″ of rain.
Another problem with Harvey is that the forecasts have it making landfall, then meandering around a bit. I’ve seen one that brings it inland between Corpus Christi and Victoria, then reverses its course so that it goes back out over the Gulf and northeast toward Louisiana. In that scenario, Houston will get *lots* of rain.
We had some flooding at our house two years ago, and I don’t want to see another Claudette.
14BFSMan – I went through Claudette too. Still in school so living at my parents’ house in Friendswood. Water outside the house rose to the eaves, *only* five and half feet of water inside the house because it was one of those 1960s types with a sunken living room and den. We lost pretty much everything. All these years and several more floods later I will still only live in a second floor apartment. 🙂
For those wanting rational no hype weather reports for the Houston area, try this site: https://spacecityweather.com It’s very reliable and just plain ole sane.
15@Diane: “Snow” What in the world is “snow”? BRAG from the New Mexico desert.
16This is what happens when you re-elect Louie Gohmert.
17Slipstream: Watch your f**king mouth and look at a congressional district map before you go bumpin your gums.(sorry mama)
18Stay safe, y’all! Hoping things go better than what is predicted.
Hannah in Oregon
19Oh yeah. Where I live we have only one congressvarmit for the entire state (which is way bigger than Texas). Forgot about congressional districts. But watch Harvey settle in right over TX-1.
207:00 AM Friday – they are already having wind at Galveston. Hang on tight, friends! Captain Donnie will be monitoring the storm from Camp David.
21Good luck to all of you in Texas. This Floridian will be radiating positive vibrations your way.
22BFSman, I’d forgotten that formula! Two good sites for information:
23http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml
The Weather channel had to add a new color to their mapping system in order to accurately depict the increased amount of rainfall from this storm.
Thoughts and prayers heading out to all of you in Louisiana and Texas, this one is going to be one heck of a storm.
Thinking of you, stay safe there in Texas.
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