August 26, 2017 By: El Jefe Category: Holy Crap
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My name is Susan DuQuesnay Bankston. I live in Richmond, Texas, in the heart of Tom DeLay's old district. It's nuttier than squirrel poop here.
I am honored and privileged to know Miss Juanita Jean Herownself, hairdresser extraordinary and political maven. Since she does not have time to fiddle with this internet stuff, I type her website for her and you can read it if you want to. If you don't, she truly does not give a big bear's butt.
A lot of what I post here has to do with local politics, but you probably have the same folks in your local government.
This ain't a blog. Blogs are way too trendy for me. This is a professional political organization.
They don’t call that a “spaghetti model” for nothing! (It is amusing to see how divergent the forecasts are, each of those strands is from a different agency around the world, weather forecasters, universities, etc.). And what you see in the photo is far more accurate than it would have been 10 or 50 years ago, which isn’t much consultation if you live in the area today.
1Forgive me, but isn’t that Derecho from the University of Wisconsin Madison, not NWS or NOAA?
2Looks like a bunch of predictions for Cowchip Bingo. (FYI, a cow is released in a pen or small pasture with grid lines, and people bet on where she’s gonna poop. This is done in places where there’s not a lot of entertainment.)
To be fair, if there’s very little activity up there to push this thing anywhere, it’s damn hard to predict where it’s going to go or when. They all boil down to “You’re stuck with this sucker for a while.”
3There appear to be 29 different models and paths on this map.
4It seems only the three most extreme models appear on the TV, the ones that promise the most damage and misery. Not that there won’t be massive damage in the direct path of this storm or any hurricane that comes ashore or the flooding in low laying areas.
I think we have been snowed by the ratings whores crying wolf.
The center/eye of what is now Tropical Storm Harvey is approximately 30 miles from my place right now and moving closer. Conditions are deteriorating quickly, winds rising, rain going heavy, and the barometer is falling (which is giving me joint and muscle pains, time for some aspirin)
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I thought that I left this crazy SOB Harvey behind in Rockport yesterday morning and he’s chased me back here.
Harvey’s like tRump, a mean, nasty bastard, and you just can’t get away from his uglee reach.
Harvey’s going to be hanging around for a few more days, like tRump you just can’t make him go away.
Did y’all see the TV interview with the crabby Rockport mayor and minion? The media was finally able to get through into Rockport. He’s a raving RWNJ Talibangelical, if you didn’t notice.
5Well, it does say “Expert interpretation required”…
6The storm wasn’t terribly well organized and compact coming onshore so it is/was a pretty safe bet to fall apart rather quickly. Once that happens, calling the ‘center of the storm’ is somewhat a matter of judgement. Two people could look at the same track and differ on what the ‘path is’. Given all that, I’m not so bothered by the differing paths which were predicted.
7What’s the problem? I’m about 30 miles east of Austin and IH 35. We have been in a local drought, with really, really hot, dry weather. We have had a few hard rains today, but for the most part the rain is exactly the kind we need: Slow and steady, with no gully washers. The kind that soaks in slowly. Just two days before Harvey formed-up, a local neighbor opined that he wouldn’t mind the loss of a small, Texas coastal town, if it meant we could get some rain. I thought that to be a kinda crass, cruel, thoughtless thing to say—- but Hell, look what we’ve been given: Full stock tanks and enough moisture in the ground to make another cutting of hay. I’m not gonna argue with God about this…….):(
8George in Lee County: Maybe the fires have f**ked up you or someone you care about. But if you think that somehow justifies your sh**ting on someone suffering now cause they don’t know REAL pain, you really oughta go piss up a f**king rope.
9AlanInAustin,
To put it politely, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
The NHC, NOAA, NRL, SSD, dozens of Met offices, and me, beg to differ.
Hurricane Harvey was an incredibly “well organized and compact” cyclone from 250+ miles offshore (“compact” in the sense of eye structure, while growing to a diameter of 300+ miles overall). Harvey became even more “well organized” as it reached Category 4 strength just prior to landfall (are any Cat 4 storms not “well organized and compact”? Don’t think so.).
As far as “so it is/was a pretty safe bet to fall apart rather quickly.”, friggin Harvey is still pretty well organized 36+ hours after making landfall, and is going to remain that way for another couple of days. The center of Harvey is close to me and it’s effects are ongoing: strong winds and rain.
As far as “calling the ‘center of the storm’ “, the NOAA WDR-88 Doppler radars at each WFO location have incredibly sophisticated computer software that interprets the raw radar signal data flowing in, and computes a near exact ” ‘center of the storm’ ” for as long as there is a circulation (look up ‘doppler’).
As far as the various WX models differing somewhat (not “Two people”, many algorithms), that’s fairly normal, it’s an extremely complex problem.
In short, I’ve just checked several radar and satellite views and Harvey is still pretty damn “well organized” and barely traveling around as it remains drifting between Seguin and Cuero.
From the NHC’s recent Public Advisories #26 & 27 on Harvey (sounds like Harvey’s still pretty “well organized” and still a defined “Tropical Storm” a day and a half after landfall ):
“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6 West. Harvey has been nearly stationary and little motion is anticipated during the next few days.”
“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is drifting east-northeastward. A drift toward the south or southeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to remain inland over southeastern Texas.”
IOW, Ur FOS.
10But maybe I’ve missed out on an ironical post I would’ve made myself. If so, sorry, sorry everyone. If not, go…. well you know the rest.
11P.P., chill,
12I think that ol’ George in Lee County was trying to be sardonic, and failed miserably.
Hell, I may have sustained a considerable loss myself in that very same “small, Texas coastal town” he quotes his dumbazz neighbor about.
But after seeing a (very) few tv news clips/interviews of people down there it’s not much, compared to the what the locals are enduring now, pure misery (BTDT). And Rockport ain’t called the “Texas Redneck Riviera” for nothing.