The Washington State Dems have yet to get their entire act together – they have county conventions coming up on May 1 – and so Bernie Sanders has not seen all the delegate fruits of victory there since his March 26 precinct caucus victory, and won’t see final totals until May 21. Only 34 of their 101 pledged delegates have been allocated. I estimate that when the rest are, Bernie will pick up enough to narrow Hillary Clinton’s lead by 35 more delegates.
It won’t be near enough. Even with that assumption baked in, after her resounding New York win, Clinton maintains a 240-delegate lead, with a little over 1400 delegates left in play. After his Michigan surprise seven weeks ago, Sanders needed 55% of the remaining delegates to overtake her pledged delegate lead. Two weeks ago, that was up to 57%. Now it’s up to 59% of every delegate pool up for grabs from now on, including in the 5 Northeastern states voting tomorrow.
On yet another, super, Tuesday, there are nearly 400 Democratic delegates up for grabs, half in Pennsylvania. Unless something weird has happened that I can’t fathom yet, Hillary should come out of those contests with a net gain of around 60 more delegates. Between that and New York, she will have wiped out all of Bernie’s gains during his Revolution’s Long March through Western Caucasia.
This means that, by about 11 PM tomorrow, Sanders will need two thirds of the remaining delegates, just to catch up in the pledged delegate column. That’s not going to happen, and he will not catch up in the popular vote, either, where Clinton’s lead will be north of 3 million votes.
These numbers could change if Bernie overperforms tomorrow, a la Michigan, especially if he can steal a march in Pennsylvannia. But even that would not be enough to change the narrative, this time. And the Sanders team recognizes this, which is why they’ve been making noise about asking the superdelegates to overturn themselves, and forsake Hillary, for Party and Country.
Let’s see what they say after tomorrow night.