The last week was good to front-runners, but I, Primo, hold to my view that The Day After SuperTomorrow we will be able to truly tell the character of both races, as actual, significant delegate totals are at stake. Here are some story lines to watch.
GOP – Right now, I have no idea what’s going to happen, because I have no idea if the tag team of the Cuban Canadian Creeper and the RU-B0 Snark ‘droid have actually put a dent in the Donald’s momentum. It is possible, but I think unlikely, because the type of voter supporting Trump isn’t the sort who keeps up with political trends. They’ve been conditioned by years of insouciant Republican mendacity to discount any negative utterance about their guy as itself a lie, perpetrated by 1) desperate opponents 2) the “lame stream” media or 3) Democrats.
In fact, the entire snacilbupeR ethos is built on a tottering tower of lies, which grows another floor every time they project America’s problems onto liberals. It’s gotten so tall, that it was not just apropos, but inevitable that Trump, a walking edifice complex, would slap his name on it. Thus, he seems to be maintaining his lead in tomorrow’s polls. We will see what happens beyond tomorrow.
Dems – this one is a little easier to parse, because there’s only two candidates, neither of them is nuts and their disagreements tend to be professional, rather than personal. Bernie won’t win the delegate apportionments tomorrow. The only measure of success we can hold him to is the one he laid out after Nevada, when he listed Vermont, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Minnesota and Colorado as the states they expect to do well in.
He has a little reason to hope that could happen. Colorado and Minnesota are caucus states, notoriously difficult to poll. Like Schrodinger’s Cat, Bernie could be alive in there, or not. Oklahoma, where independents can vote in the Democratic Primary for the first time, just showed a promising 5-point lead for Sanders, although two other February polls showed Hillary leads. Similarly, recent polls have given Clinton a slim lead on Bernie in Massachusetts, but that’s a close one, too. Vermont, of course, will be a Sanders win.
Four or five wins for Sanders, however slim, will allow pundits to declare him still viable, and give him a narrative to continue into the weekend contests with. But even before his Carolina pasting, it was likely he would find himself 200 delegates down after Tuesday. (Pending the 27 delegates in the American Samoa Caucus and Democrats Abroad Primary.)